[classhandicapper]

Not to diminish Ruffian as a 2YO (obviously freakishly good) , but it's not that unusual for 2YO fillies to be ahead of 2YO colts in their physical development (especially sprinting). I think that's something that has to be considered when evaluating them relative to colts based on the standards we are used to among older horses.

If the typical gap between MATURE males and females is typically 8 Beyer points (+ or - a little), it tends to be less among 2YO sprinters.

Had she remained sound and continued racing, I think she would have been a lot like RA in that we would have seen her best at 3.

I don't have much of an issue with the fluctuation of her figures. IMO, the race development, pace, figure accuracy, and reserve racing energy/stamina issues are too complex to take any one figure too literally as a measure of ability or even performance.

Finally, I don't trust speed figures in races where the winning margin was huge no matter who makes them, including me (and I certainly respect DrugS). The exact beaten length time translation formula used for the PPs is not known by anyone other than Equibase. All the major speed figure makers are using a slightly different beaten length chart (TG and RAGs is different than Beyer, CJ is different from both etc..).

So if you project a figure for a winner based on the well beaten horses, depending on which beaten length chart you use you will get a different figure. Even worse, typically, big winners are dominant speed types. Part of the reason they win by so many lengths is that the pace they set is well within their own range, but outside the range of the inferior stalkers and chasers. So the margin of victory gets exaggerated by the fact that the competition was exhausted chasing the winner. It's hard to determine how much of the large margin is the winner running fast and how much is the losers running slower than usual.

IMHO, Beyer himself (and most other figure makers) don't understand this phenomenon well enough and tend to inflate the figures of big winners. IMHO, he inflated a couple of Rachel's figures by a few points that way on days when track speed was not stable.