[RockHardTen1985]

Originally Posted by RolloTomasi

What? That horses are flesh and blood and can't be expected to run their top race every time they run?



Those are the bettors that you make money off of. The one's that don't see the big picture (BC Preview Day) or recognize today's conditions (lone speed horse, Haynesfield, a multiple winner over the track and distance) may not be ideal.

The same type of bettors that "overreact" to the progression or regression of a horse. Blame had only been favored in one stakes race in his career up to that point, the Grade 3 Schaefer at Pimlico. He was suddenly a monster because he beat the much lauded Quality Road at Saratoga.

The same thing occured, full circle, with Unrivaled Belle this year. She trumped uber-filly Rachel Alexandra and therefore became an instant "monster", going off at odds-on in 2 of her next 3 starts. Yet fans had enough of her runner-up efforts in those races, including a 2nd in the Beldame (yet another perfect "prep" if you look at the big picture), and let her go off at 7-1 in the BC Distaff.



That would have been great. Then those with your mentality might have really got off him and let him get away at 8-1 or so.

Haynesfield was a winner at 10f before the JCGC?