Quote:
Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS
Let me ask you this - how much a curve do you grade on when grading a mare against an older male?
I think if you're ultimately grading these horses on accomplishments, quality of performance and difficulty of campaign... Blame will have a slight but very clear edge over Zenyatta. You're grading an older male against a mare though .. so it really boils down to what kind of a curve you're grading on - or if you're applying the curve in your grading at all.
No one was louder than I was about how soft Zenyatta's campaign has been - and how soft her Grade 1 wins have been - but she is a mare. I think that fact is getting lost on a few of the smarter people around here. Just as the fact that Rachel Alexandra was a 3-year-old filly last year .. and Zenyatta was a mare .. seemed to get lost on a lot of people last year.
The fact that RA was a 3yo filly - actually should have made her a unanimous winner - taking every single vote in 2009 IMO.
If you're not going to apply a curve - a 2-year-old will never win this award. A 3-year-old filly will almost never win this award. And a mare will almost never win this award.
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Are you talking about when I handicap, or for this discussion?
As we have seen in recent years, I don't think the gap is big at all, if it even exists between some of the better males and females in this country. I get what you are saying about her being a mare. But she's a pretty good mare and definitely good enough to be facing boys because she was that much better than those she faced out west. This is commonplace in Europe and really no reason it can't be here.
My understanding of HOY is horse that had the best year. I factor in what races they won, who they beat and how that compared to other horses. Had Zenyatta run in one other race against males this year, I think she would be a pretty solid favorite for HOY, even with the narrow defeat in the BC. But, her connections rolled the dice and she didn't win the race. She ran really well, but just fell short. That compared with the fact Blame beat her and had a pretty decent (by todays standards) year of his own means IMO he should win and win convincingly.