I've always been a big fan of this quote ....
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NHipzGL4dwM
And, it's a pretty big reason why I put zero effort into handicapping football games - and just watch as a fan and don't bet a whole lot on a game when I do bet one.
There's way too much sh!t that you don't know, can't determine, and can't properly account for. A lot that you can't predict or even make an educated guess at.
A lot of games are determined by one or two big plays - sometimes by a bounce of the ball... but stuff like that will even out over time.
Baseball seems like such a cold numbers and situations game that suits me better. If I ever tried to bet a major sport it would be baseball ... I just can't stand baseball though. Guys like Coach Pants and Phil seem to do a really good job with football ... but in my mind, guys like that are like the Anti Meyer Lansky types. Meyer Lansky always seems to walk into the traps - where some guys have a good enough feel to survey the scene and consistantly be right a little more often than not.