Quote:
Originally Posted by hockey2315
The 7 looks like the speed to me - maybe win and box w/ 1,2,5.
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The 7 might have a touch more early speed than the 1 and 5 - but there's no way she clears by the turn from that draw. This isn't like with that 9 horse yesterday where all plodders were inside of it and it was gunned.
The 1 and 5 both have very good route speed and are synthetic lovers.
The one horse is 5-for-14 lifetime at PID - with wins at 17/1 and 16/1 and several ITM finishes at fat prices. The five horse has been in the exacta 13 out of 16 times at PID .. with 6 wins - including wins at 12/1, and 7/1. Her last two figures easily exceed avg winner par for class level.
The 7 on the other hand, is a certified synthetic hater - and her trainer is 1-for-47 here .. with almost his entire stable running well below form at this track.
To me, the 7 horse impacts the race by making things a lot tougher for the 1 and 5. Even though the bias is to inside-speed - in races where the pace has been extremely contested - the winner has typically been a horse drawn inside, who is able to save ground early, and only comes off the inside to pass tiring duelers. That's why I picked the 2 horse to win this race in the paper.