Quote:
Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS
Why did I pick First Dude to win the Preakness at 24/1 odds with Lookin at Lucky picked 2nd and Yawanna Twist picked 3rd?
This years Derby was a joke .. and it basically boiled down to finding a closer at a price. Ice Box was the logical one to take - but I had a serious problem taking him off of a very weak Fla Derby win by a head over Pleasant Prince. Make Music For Me had Rosario .. still, no thanks. Stately Victor was 30/1 on the line, and I had false hope that he was a good dirt on the basis of his 2nd place finish to Winslow Homer in his debut at Saratoga.
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I'm not saying it was a bad pick, I did have a problem that he won at 42-1 or whatever it was for the Bluegrass and the broodmare Collect the Cash was more known as a turf horse, rather than a dirt one. BTW the totally mediocre Aaron Gryder rode her to atleast a couple of her bigger scores correct for Stronach? I know Maker gets great bang for the buck, it wouldn't have been a pick I would have made but why not in this derby. I just wanted to see your rationale since you are a stats orientated handicapper or it seems that way from your posts.