Quote:
Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind
Here's the problem with the " Quality Road can't get 1 1/4 " argument....he already showed with his 2nd in the JCGC last year that he can, and given the competition out there, it's hard to imagine who can realistically do it faster than him.
However, it does seem likely he will be more effective going one mile to 1 1/8, and I can't argue that he has had reasonably good setups in his races, and perhaps the dynamics won't be in his favor in the BC Classic. He still may be so much better than his competition that he will win. I guess we'll see. However, we have already seen that he can run very well at 1 1/4 miles....and on a racetrack ( a very wet one ) that probably isn't his favored surface.
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I agree with the notion that Quality Road is at his "best" going a mile. That doesn't mean that he can't get 10F, but it's probably not his optimum distance.
It's probably a bit hazardous to compare Quality Road's performances in the Travers and JCGC last year because of questions surrounding his level of fitness coming into the Travers. With that caveat stated, when QR ran in the Travers, a 10F race with a legit (23.0, 26.4, and 1:11.0) pace, he tired and was beaten by a mediocrity like Hold Me Back. Because of the relatively soft pace of the JCGC (24.4, 49.3, 1:13.0), that race is probably not the best evidence of his ability to "get" 10F.
If Dutrow does half the work with Rail Trip that he did with horses like Saint Liam and Offlee Wild, and even if he doesn't, the pace scenario is unlikely to be similar to the JCGC. For that matter, a match-up in the Whitney or Woodward would present a completely different ball set-up from what QR faced in the Donn, especially with a legitimate closer like Blame waiting to take advantage.