Quote:
Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind
Not to rehash a dreaded name, but it's just like the silly argument that for some reason Rachel Alexandra supposedly can't get 1 1/4 miles, despite running a tremendous race in the Preakness at 1 3/16 when she won despite running way against race dynamics. Now, Fat Man, you can't use race dynamics when they suit your argument, but ignore them when they don't.
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So much for DrugS golden rail @ PID in the 1st -- the wipe-out horse blows by the rail running 2, who I bet.
I'm not twisting dynamics. I'm using dynamics to make a very strong case against the horse going 10F. He has the natural speed to control a race going up to 8F or so -- 9 at GP (or other speed favoring tracks). In other words, he's fast/good enough to not only set the pace (or chase a fast one) but also to repel any bids, whether early or late -- though, most recently, these came in the form of a premature move by a sprinter and a late run by, essentially, a plug; and he didn't exactly beat anything good down at GP. But I digress. Anyway, he has yet to show this same ability going 10F. I realize that Summer Bird, highly regarded by so many here, beat him both times last year but these were both races with a minimal number of moves. Doubtful we get a similar scenario in the CLASSIC, where, hopefully, there'll be a large field and, thus, plenty of chances for plenty of IDIOT moves. And, JV is not exactly the type that will put him INSIDE and wait patiently to make a final run. Know what I mean? Maybe the CLASSIC comes up very weak. Maybe is comes up with a minimal amount of horses. Maybe he's able to control the pace and get 10F. But I need to see it and, assuming that there's a full field, including Blame, and others, I'll doubt it till I see it.