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Originally Posted by todko
It's always good to be able to go against a favorite. Barring any unforeseen developments Bernardini will be a heavy favorite. He's a baby of the press. He's run some solid times but no records -- and in every major race his primary competition has been injured -- Barbaro in the Preakness, Sunriver in the Jim Dandy, and Bluegrass Cat in the Travers. He's beaten Grade III/allowance company at best. I'll throw out a tired Brother Derek (who has yet to prove he can still race effectively) and a tired Sweetnorthernsaint (who has yet to prove he can even make it back to the track) in the Preakness.
For me, Bernardini is a solid bet against in the BC Classic.
If he runs, and he should, Perfect Drift would be a good price play. Bernardini has never faced a horse that good and PD just ran a hell of a race in the KY Classic. He's run against the best horses in racing since the '70s (including Bid here) in Ghostzapper, St. Liam, Congaree, Roses in May, Pleasantly Perfect. He'll have JuLep in the irons, he's Dynaformer, he's run well at CD, and he'll get the 10F with or without tough fractions.
I don't know where Bright One stands, but Bright One and Discreet Cat are two 3 year olds who could beat Bernardini. Not to mention the older horses. We'll know more as the field shapes up. It's got to be better than the joke they are calling the Jockey Club Gold Cup. That's not a race -- that's a joke.
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You knock Bernardini and then say Perfect Drift ran a hell of a race in the KY Classic?!? (which is a much larger of a joke of a race than this year's JCGC, or even last year's awful of an edition for that matter) Unless you think Ball Four is the Ghostzapper of today, then it is very obvious that Perfect Drift is the has been of racing.