Quote:
Originally Posted by Hwjb
I haven't had an ante-post bet and, none too surprisingly, the market has it about right I'd have thought, Big Fella Thanks is surely the likeliest winner, and he's almost becoming backable with some firms going 10/1. I certainly think he has a much better chance than Mon Mome (flattered by his Cheltenham run) and The Package (still think he might be doggy) who are only slightly longer priced.
Black Apalachi must have a very good chance, and I'll certainly have a few shekels on him, whilst Comply Or Die has to be the most solid each-way bet at 20+/1.
I may be slightly biased, but Backstage does tick a lot of boxes in that he's got the requisite speed, he's an up-and-comer, the ground has come right, he jumps well and, for me anyway, he'll stay. Granted a bit of luck obviously, I imagine he'll be thereabouts and will certainly have him to win a fair bit.
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Harry, cant have Big Fella Thanks. Im not a fan of his attitude and am not getting too carried away with a win over a certain Swiss bred horse last time out. I do agree with you re: Mon Mome (and I had him last year) and The Package.
My 4 would for the race would be:
Niche Market - Im a huge fan of his, He doesnt have anything in hand of the handicapper but is assured of loving the trip, is a great jumper and I love the angle of backing Irish National winners the next year in the big one.
Comply Or Die - last 2 nationals, he's been first and 2nd, you'd have to say hes a cracking each way bet - may find one or two too good but should be in the top 4.
Vic Venturi - I loved him up until yesterday when Paddy Flood was injured and I would not be Roger Loughran's biggest fans. He is a classy sort. Not much between him and Black Apalachi but I prefer Vic (I think last year was Black Apalachi's year!)
and in my search to find a 100-1 winner I like
Palypso De Creek - This guy is not fast or classy, all he does is stay and hopefully he can run into a place at 100-1+. As a 5yo he won a G3 hurdle over 3m on bottomless ground in Auteuil. That will do for me..
Best of Luck.