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Originally Posted by DaTruth
“Her gallops have been very strong,’’ Asmussen said. “She’s not 100 percent fit for this race. We’re aware of that. She’s had six works in six months. But she’s a very physical horse. She is Rachel. I am very concerned about her fitness level.’’
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Here are Asmussen's stats with layoff horses since 2004:
96-for-643 (14.9% wins) $1.22 ROI - basically you lose 2.5 times more than the takeout - or 39% on every dollar bet.. and 643 races is a big sample.
Here are Asmussen's stats with layoff routers since 2004:
17-for-159 (10.7% wins) $0.65 ROI - you're losing 67.5% on every dollar bet. An unbelievable amount.
It's pretty obvious that Asmussen has very little talent with getting horses ready off of a layoff ... I guess just look at the silly choice of workmate he choose for RA's last work - and the curious comment he made about expecting her to go 1:12 .. she'd have needed like a 21 flat final quarter to do that.
The real bright spot for RA though - is that I believe these Asmussen layoff stats become undermined in her case because Asmussen is also downright terrible 2nd off the layoff and downright terrible 3rd off of the layoff.
He's an ultimate 'strike while the irons hot' kind of trainer .. but when his horses get hurt or go sour and need time .. you can almost forget them. In RA's case - there was no injury and was no going sour.
One of the most talented and special 2yo's I've ever seen was Tiz Wonderful. The piss poor job Asmussen did with him when he brought him back from injury the following year was the stuff of legend.