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Originally Posted by RolloTomasi
You still neglect Hansel who almost certainly ran as fast, if not faster than any of Dinard's races in his track record performance in the Jim Beam.
Further, let's look at strict form with regards to Hansel:
Jim Beam: dusts Apollo by open lengths
Preakness: dusts Best Pal and Olympio by open lengths
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Do you think that maybe the 9f of the Jim Beam might have been outside Apollo's best range?
How about the 45.3 and 109.3 splits he set? Or that he shipped to a surface that a lot of horses didn't like back then?
Or, maybe coming back in less than four weeks off one of the most gut wrenching performances we've seen out of a sprinter going a mile, that maybe that took something out of him?
Or, how about that Apollo, coming off that Dinard loss, never was the same horse again, winning only one time in those last 17 races of his career? This from a horse with four wins and a head loss to Dinard in his first 6 starts???
Get real man!
As for Hansel's GREAT three year old form going into the derby:
5th by 11 to Fly So Free in the FOY in a blazing fast 144.1
3rd by 5 to FSF again, in the Florida Derby. Strike the Gold second, a super blazing time of 150.2.
Then the 2.5 length win in the Jim Beam in 146.3 for 9f. Nice time, but beat Richman and Wilder Than Ever.
Then the romp in the Lexington. 9 length win over Shotgun Harry J. and Speedy Cure in 142.3.
Hansel did get sharp there, but against badly overmatched opponents and over lightning fast surfaces.
I'll take Dinard please.
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Originally Posted by RolloTomasi
As for the SA Derby history, not sure where you going with the curse thing (how would this help your argument that Dinard was a lock in the Derby anyways?), but I was suggesting that Best Pal's runner-up efforts didn't necessarily mean he was not as good as Dinard, but rather a result of "prepping" for a more important contest (which would fall in line with the fact that Best Pal started the season late). Alluding to Silver Charm (who chased Free House), Real Quiet (who chased Artax and Indian Charlie), and Go For Gin (Irgun, Holy Bull) who all ultimately won the Derby was supposed to lend plausability to that scenario.
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It really had nothing to do with anything. Just a weird run of bad luck for winners of that race.
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Originally Posted by RolloTomasi
As for AP Indy, it seems contradictory to suggest he was a lock for the Derby as well, when you defend the thinking that Arazi was somehow cheated out of a Derby win (they both were entered for the '92 edition).
If Arazi was scratched raceday along AP Indy, who would have been more of a lock?
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I followed the Arazi situation very closely. The trainer wanted no part of coming back to Kentucky, there were offhanded rumors that the dirt was unkind to Arazi (I don't really know if I buy into that one) and everyone knew he was going to have just one prep race, against the equivalent of low claimers. He had no hope against AP Indy with these things going against him.
Nobody at all, except for any idiot who bet Arazi, perhaps, was surprised by that outcome.