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Originally Posted by CSC
I'll try to explain this again why I believe that result was flattering to RA, when you expend energy early on in a race especially when it is not the norm in a horse's profile, It can be construed as valid reason why the winning margin may be skewed. RA ran her style sitting off of 2 horses dueling(her strength) and to her credit she capitalized on it. I will concede that at this stage RA's development is ahead of SB's, after all he was cutting back from a 1 1/2 to 1 1/8th. Hey I am not making excuses for him he and the entire field got beaten rather easily that day, but if the RA backers think she is consistently 10 lengths better than arguably the best 3 yr old colt thus far this year, I think they are very mistaken.
If they ever meet again with an added furlong, with a seasoned and rapidly improving SB on a fairer racetrack with different race dynamics where Summer Bird isn't forced to not run his style, I am extremely confident Rachel Alexandra will not be 10 lengths the better if she indeed is. We will see and I can't wait if and when it happens. Money is the name of the game and I hope my opinion is of the vast minority.
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Who knows, maybe at 10 furlongs she is only 3 lengths better.. probably closer to 10 though. But Summer Bird ran a similar close to the pace race in the Travers and won by 3 1/2. So maybe he WAS in his comfort zone in the haskell.
If she was not in the race at Monmouth, Summer Bird would have won the race in a respectable time. Just like this past Saturday. He ran a real good race in the Haskell. She absolutely freaked (like she does every time she sets foot on a racetrack except the Preakness) and was 2 ticks off the track record while running over some soup.
Also, with regards to the 10 furlong thing.. She may have won the haskell by 15 or 20 had she had another furlong to keep moving.
I just dont think your Haskell arguement makes any sense.
If they races again at 1 1/4 I wouldnt bet on either horse. Rachel's odds would be too low, and I wouldnt want to lost my $ betting on the other bird.