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Originally Posted by oracle80
Its going to be very interesting to see where these horses show up next and polytrack will hhave an impact on it.
I'm sure that they want the easiest Grade One spot they can find with Scat Daddy so he can be cemented as a sire prospect.
WIth Quay, hes already a sire prospect and has his grade one win.
But the problem is that the Keeneland race that might have been used as a prep for one of them is now conducted on polytrack. I find it unlikely that either owner wants his horse prepping on that stuff for the BC and in Scat daddy's case risking what may be the best chance for a grade one win before they stretch out to two turns.
So other than the Champagne(which is spaced too close to the BC for either horse with only 3 weeks rest between and a trainer who doesnt like running them off 3 weeks rest) which in itself isnt ideal, what does he do with them?
I think he will choose to train CQ up to the race because his pedigree and running style suggest the two turns won't be an issue and that he runs Scat Daddy in the Champagne in order to get him a grade one asap.
Anyone have any scenarios which make more sense?
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I'm not so sure that Scat Daddy won't florish around two-turns more so than Circular Quay.....remember, horses with that sort of closing burst around one-turn are usually more 'trick' type horses than anything....most people think, "Well, he'll LOVE the stretchout and added grpund" - and he indeed may, but more so than not, when they can close that strongly from the clouds around one-turn they are 'niche' horses - one-tun closers - and those horses can get two-turns but tend to flatten out in their closing punch....I could see CQ trailing 10 lengths back in his route debut and running evenly all the way around the oval and not making up much ground in the stretch...these types fool people ALL the time...
Keep in mind, his dam - Circle of Life - was best at around 7 panels around one turn...food for thought although I know that he is a Thunder Gulch and bred to run all day on the topside...
Scat Daddy, on the otherhand, looks like a horse who should relish the 1 1/16 miles of the BC Juvy....he is more handy than the other horse and that is why I'm sticking to my guns that he will be better around two-turns with stalking type trips.....we'll see...
Good point about the Grade 1 though....I'm sure Todd wants to try to get a G1 under Scat Daddy's belt ASAP as a 2YO....
To be honest with you, I'd be surprised to see Pletcher run either of these colts at Keeneland over that Polytrack...I realy would because he is a smart trainer and knows that they could react negatively with a bad start over that surface.....I will bet he avoids KEE and runs one of them in the Champagne (I bet he runs Circular Quay) and trains the other one directly up to the BC Juvy, which is what I think he'll do with Scat Daddy....or he may run them together in the Champagne again...who really knows....