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Originally Posted by ateamstupid
The fact that there's no speed in the race? Wouldn't you have said the same thing about Da' Tara last year? Fool me once..
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Originally Posted by peetsa
You probably said the same thing about Mine That Bird in the Derby also. oops.
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Yes, I absolutely said the same thing or worse in those two cases! I had Da' Tara at 60-1 in my line for last year's Belmont. I had Mine That Bird at 100-1 in my Ky Derby line. Given the same info up to the point of those races, I wouldn't rework those odds.
The fact that longshots sometimes win doesn't suggest to me that betting longshots is now automatically a good idea. I don't get the "no speed in the race" rationale, either, ateam. Miner's Escape's "speed" is clearly not a lone-speed type of speed, what with Charitable Man and Dunkirk running. And even in a 9 furlong race, he could only muster a 12.9 sec final furlong.
How is a horse that in its best race finishes 9 furlongs with a 12.9 after a 48.8 half going to win this 12-furlong race? It would take more than a 50-1 set of circumstances IMO.
--Dunbar