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Originally Posted by miraja2
Unlike many people, I don't have a real strong opinion one way or the other on Pioneerof the Nile. I wouldn't be shocked if he was in the exacta, and I wouldn't be shocked if he didn't finish in the top half. How can anyone really know one way or the other how he'll handle a new surface under race conditions?
His final odds are difficult to predict, and he might end up being overbet, but for me his pedigree and works over the track lead me to believe that he might actually like the dirt. If he does, he is one of the very few horses in the race that I think might have a shot at beating I Want Revenge....who I see as a very solid favorite.
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I think if you are sold on I want revenge... but not sold on POTN, you should play more than just an exact box with POTN... You should key I want revenge over a few horses that you think could run in the money.. and add some horses underneath who have some value.