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Originally Posted by the_fat_man
This horse can't really control the pace in the Derby. He's just not good enough. At best, and most likely, he tries to sit a stalking trip, and prays that nothing else is coming. Problem is, there are too many horses in the race for QR to be the only horse sitting pretty on the turn. There will be multiple moves in the Derby, and (especially if the pace is fast) the race will most certainly collapse. Probably not a complete collapse but certainly not one where the horse inheriting the lead wins the race. Add to this that Velazquez is about as reliable as Prado these days and you have a very poor bet. With all the focus on POTN as the toss horse in the Derby, QR and FF make much better sense as tosses (to WIN) and they will be shorter odds.
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I disagree and I think you're making some generalizations.
1. I hate trying to figure out what the pace scenario is going to be for a race that hasn't even drawn and has a field that is in flux until three days prior. However, I don't agree that "he's just not good enough" to control the pace in the Derby.
2. There could very easily be multiple moves in the Derby, especially considering there are many pace pressers heading to the race but not necessarily speed horses at this point in time. I don't really think that's a big issue, though, if QR is able to stalk the pace in a Smarty Jones, Funny Cide, Barbaro, Big Brown type fashion.
3. I think the whole thing about the Derby pace collapsing is over-blown. There's just not enough speed pointing to the Derby right now to envision a pace collapse. The most plausible scenario I could imagine is Regal Ransom getting stupid and horses like FF and QR getting run into the ground chasing him. I just don't see it happening.
4. I'm not a jockey capper and I think that Johnny V is as good if not better than Chavez, Santos, Elliott, Smith, and Borel and they've each won a Derby in this decade.
I think there's a big difference between a horse who has chased dawdling paces, taken over and kicked clear against poor to moderate late runners and a horse who has stalked good fractions, taken over and at least in his biggest race to date held off a pretty good horse, who might have been disadvantaged by pace.
NT