I was the guy who made that call, and my whole point was this:
What is the reason for a morning line in a parimutual wagering system? Basically, it would seem to me, that the person who sets the morning line has already gone about handicapping the race and the morning line serves as his "picks" from one to however many the field has. The only thing that results from this is that the public will generally follow these "guidelines" and bets accordingly. I think this obviously screws a good handicapper -- who would probably come to the same conclusions that the ML setter would (who's probably a good handicapper). You can say the betting public dictates the final odds all you want, but anyone who has ever watched a tote board knows that, conservatively, 90% of all final odds fall right into line with the ML. Don't believe me? Watch it happen damn near every time. A 4-1 MLer that's 6-1 with three minutes to post the (very) vast majority of the time will end up 4-1 or, at best, 9-2 when the windows close. Most of the time, the only instances of the final odds deviating any noticeable amount from the morning line odds are with the favorite (a 2-1 ML fav may drop as low as, say, 4-5 or even money) and with the hopeless 20 and 30-1 longshots (who usually end up a bit longer, making for your 40 and 50-1s). The only reason I can think of for this phenomenom is people watching the tote, knowing what the ML odds are ("they have to be right on, like a point spread, right?"), and then betting what they believe to be "nice" prices -- like the said 6-1/4-1 example. Yes, they are defeating their own purpose by betting these horses and driving the odds back down, but how can it be argued that morning lines don't point the lazy or unskilled handicapper in the right direction? Morning lines basically say, "here is how the horses stack up to each other and here is how they are ranked based on their past performances. We've gone to the trouble of doing the majority of the handicapping for you. Now, the best of you can hope to cash in on shorter prices than you'd get if the general public wasn't made aware of who the contenders are."
Without morning lines, I'm betting that you'd see favorites still go low (the public will follow the early, "smart" money -- everybody likes to play it safe and cash winning tickets), and the rest of the field would offer a lot more 8-1 and 10-1 prices on horses with legitimate shots.
I don't know. I'm a relative newcomer to the game -- I've only been seriously handicapping for a few years -- but I've read every book and obsessively absorbed everything I could, and this is just the way I see it.
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