I consider Lava Man's poor race in the JC Gold Cup last year to be the direct result of his race in the Pacific Classic in his previous start. In case you have forgotten, in last year's PacClas, Lava Man attended a wickedly fast pace, pushed by a first class speed horse named Surf Cat. His great heart wouldn't let him quit the way Surf Cat did, so he finished within a length of the winner Borrego, still in there trying. He used up all his reserves and became so exhausted he had to be vanned off of the track. A horse doesn't come back as easily or as quickly from that kind of draining effort as from a normal race and it showed in New York. And if you paid attention to such things you would know about his difficulties in Japan, too, where he came out of the race with bloody feet.
I should also add, that not every horse that runs well on 8f and 9f tracks takes to Belmont; just look at Teammate - she absolutely stunk at Belmont, but the return to a smaller track, Saratoga, enabled her to once again be competitive. And it works the other way around, too - Sightseek would have been a champion if she could have transferred her Belmont form ANYWHERE else, but she couldn't. Silver Train is another who is lengths better at Belmont than anywhere else.
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