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Originally Posted by 10 pnt move up
Certainly he is the horse to beat but a few things I consider is
1) I am going to be a against horses who seemed beaten at Santa Anita yet exploded late to win
2) The barn that this horse hails from tends to not repeat those explosive efforts next out, and the tend to go off form mysteriously at low odds
3) he will be way overbet based on 1 and 2 in my eyes.
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Valid points, but historically, at least with his claimers, it seems like Mitchell's "improvements" hold for 3 or 4 races. I'm also guessing that you can draw a line through the Strub races that could have been anomalies given the condition of the track at the time and the lopsided pace scenarios in both. Considering that Tiago was in a similar boat, and ended up moving back towards top class status away from Santa Anita, I think its a reasonable assumption.
Also, and I'm probably wrong, but I get the feeling that Surf Cat will be a strong favorite here.