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Originally Posted by letswastemoney
If they did that 4% takeout thing at a major circuit track (SA, Hol, Bel, Churchill), I believe it would work. I just don't like Ellis cards because I'm not familiar with the horses or the jockey and trainer patterns.
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1. You don't have to be NEARLY as familiar with the local conditions when you are trying to beat a 4% vig compared to trying to beat a 20% vig.
2. Do you think the capping competition at Ellis is as tough as at SA, Hol, Bel, Churchill? Maybe it is, but I doubt it.
3. If horse bettors were so bright, they would have collectively realized that if the 4% Ellis experiment was successful, other tracks would have noticed and tried similar things. Instead, what the other tracks noticed was a 4% takeout that did not bring in nearly enough action to justify the low vig.
Even if you knew nothing about the track, a random Ellis pick 4 costing $100 would have been a $4 investment in the future of the game. Despite the fact that the vast majority of bettors, including those here, are losing far more than 4% of their total bets in the longterm, not many bettors supported the Ellis venture.
--Dunbar