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Originally Posted by DaHoss9698
Obviously Holiday trip has a chance, but I feel like he's the kind of horse you try to beat at short odds. He runs second a lot and is kind of a hanger. Except of course when I needed the runner up when he broke his maiden at Saratoga. He's had a lot of chances and just doesn't seem to win.
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This is obvious. He's the male counterpart to Star Dixie. And, the race he won, he had a distinct advantage over the horse he nosed out in that he had already been a longer distance - against Bold Hawk. (There's an interesting thread about that race over at Pace Advantage.)
But all the negatives against him, he still was AHEAD on the backstretch, and finished significantly ahead of Bujagali, with a worse trip. Maybe that was a complete aberration but you can't bet him at low odds and you also can't be sure that he won't be closer than expected today, either. And, maybe Drums of Thunder doesn't get pinched today, and either sits a perfect trip or contests the pace.
So, where is Bujagali's advantage exactly?
This is just a bad race to bet.