Quote:
|
Originally Posted by hi_im_god
i'm not defending any particular website. i'm defending rational thought.
the odds of 3 races in a row being won by 50-1 shots is 75,000-1 assuming none of the horses are overlays/underlays and ignoring takeout.
the odds you lost that last hand (after being dominated pre-flop, after the flop, and then hitting a 2 outer on the turn) was 2/45 or about 22.5-1. there were 2 aces of the 45 unknown cards in that scenario.
the odds you would have hit your 2 outer on the turn were exactly 23-1 (2 cards out of 46). the odds that you hit your 2 outer and then he hit his 2 outer are 23-1 x 22.5-1 or 517.5-1.
somewhat less than 75,000-1.
the odds that pokerstars is gaming their softwear to create these situations is where i call on you to think hard about your perception.
if they are, they lost you and everyone else who has noticed this as customers generating rake for them.
rummaging around in our own basements to find the broken pipes leaking water that are causing us to think the river flooded is never any fun. it's hard ugly work.
but it pays off. not just in poker.
|
I believe your odds are too simplistic. The true odds are greater because you are forgetting that nearly half the decks was being delt out to the other 8 or 9 players. I may have failed to mention that this time, it was a tournament. I believe there are intentional 2nd best hand delt to eliminate players. I have quit playing online. The bad beats were just way over the top.
Maybe PokerStars' figures for ever person that hates over the top bad beats, there are 2 others that love it. My friend has done very well at Poker Stars but decided he can't stand the bad beats any more.
He was in a tournament that pays down 3 places. They are down to 4 players. I've already explained that the true odds that someone will have a higher pocket pair is .009% Less than 1 percent (when you have Queens). So what are the odds that you are dealt pocket Aces another player is dealt pocket Kings and another is dealt pockets 10s? (I haven't taken the time to look this one up.) Friend had the pocket Aces didn't want to slow play and went all in. He got two callers the pocket Kings and the pocket 10s. The odds that someone will get a set is pretty good but the odds that everyone has a pocket pair is ridiculous. (ofcourse the guy with the 10s won.) I know that bad beats are part of the game but the frequency and the amount of improbable hands are not part of the game. They are part of a program and knowing the program is the only way some people could play their hands the way they play. I've seen where people go "all in" when they need runner runner to win. Going all in on a draw is a bad play that I haven't seen anywhere more often than PokerStars. I can't afford to study the program.
They aren't getting the money from me and 2 of my friends.