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Originally Posted by King Glorious
I didn't start watching this game last week. I'd hope that in 20+ years, I've picked up a little something and I just don't see these same limitations that you all see. Maybe it will become clearer to me later but at this point, I don't see them.
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I know you didn't start watching the game last week, which is why I think it is a bit unusual that you don't think she is probably limited in terms of her ability to get 10f effectively. Look at her Frizette and BCJF races. Did she win them both impressively? Yes, but she sure looked like she was dead spent at the end of both. Now, we all know that this fact in and of itself is not enough to dismiss a horse's chances when stretched out, but when you couple the way she has looked on the track with her pedigree, there is really no logical reason to think she CAN do it effectively enough to win a race like the Kentucky Derby.
What is it about her that makes you think she WILL be effective at 10f? You seem to be taking the position that we should assume she will be able to do it, because she hasn't proven otherwise. I don't think that makes good handicapping sense.
Oh and by the way, I hate making predictions this far away from the race, but if I HAD to make a selection now I would probably put Anak Nakal at #1.....despite the fact that he only ran an 86 BSF in his last.