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Originally Posted by DaHoss9698
I am sure it happens sometimes, I just think it happens more infrequent than sheet users think. I feel like the "bounce" is just another excuse. The horse ran 2 months ago. How much could he be effected now? He's certainly well rested. If he gets beat, it will be because he is not good enough that day. Not because he ran a big race 8 weeks ago.
The horse is gigantic and because of this has problems with the gate and getting out of the gate. He breaks a step slow in a full field, he's probably done. That wouldn't be bouncing, it's racing luck, trip, pace, etc.
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I agree that the bounce is overused. Maybe I should use regression instead because no one uses it. But regression is a VERY REAL thing when its comes to patterns, and figuring them out can help you play against a 4/5 horse that looks like he can't lose or toss a 'hot' horse because of his last couple.