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Originally Posted by cmorioles
How many graded stakes winners on polytrack have went on to repeat the success on dirt? How many have flopped?
It has pluses and minuses, but it is most definitely a third surface. If you have to pick, it is closer to turf than dirt. I am not saying that is good or bad, but it is not what was advertised.
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Don't know, but its a real small sample. I guess Street Sense won the futurity race at Keeneland last fall before the juvenile.
The Bluegrass this year was a disaster and I think not conclusive of much the way it was run. You basically had a tie between 3-4 horses. While Dominican has done nothing since, Zanjero, Street Sense and Tueflesberg have acquitted themselves well and they were all in the photo or close.
I always point out that the 06 Bluegrass didn't prove much either. I think Sinister Minister is still trying to get out of the conditioned allowance races.
Turfway doesn't offer much in the way of graded stakes and we don't know about DelMar yet. Honestly I'm not that taken by any of the graded stakes winners that come out of Ca, even on the dirt. I guess the Pac Classic may shed some light, if the winner can ship out and perform on dirt. But even if they failed you would have to question whether it was the surface or the shipping, or something else, ala Lava Man.
I think a few more years will be required to adequately answer your question.