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Originally Posted by justindew
Here are examples of horses since 1996, off the top of my head, that did not run to their odds in the Preakness, where their odds were based on their Derby efforts:
Prince of Thieves
Cavonnier (injured in the Preakness)
Victory Gallop (Ran well, but didn't win)
Menifee (Ran well, but didn't win)
Medaglia D' Oro
Peace Rules
Imperialism
Lion Heart
Closing Argument
It does not happen every year, but ALMOST every year, a horse who runs a terrific race in the Derby gets heavily bet in the Preakness, and comes up short. That's all I'm saying. I think Hard Spun will be added to that list this year.
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And V-Gallop and Menifee ran 2nd behind the same horse they ran second to in the Derby (I didn't even use '99 in my suggestion of exactas that came out the same way as the Derby.) I highly doubt Hard Spun runs off the board against this mediocre group.