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Originally Posted by miraja2
We also don't have any idea really what the pace is going to look like. Could some horse sneak in out of the Lexington that has no chance of winning but could affect the pace scenario? Perhaps.
Will there be anymore drop-outs (like Notional)?
We just don't know.
I find it best to wait until the day before the Derby to come up with my bets. Otherwise you run the risk of becoming married to a wager that no longer makes sense by post time. Anyone who has already determined how they are going to wager on the derby is....in my opinon....seriously compromising their chances of cashing. Too many good handicappers get derby fever and let it overwhelm their usual good sense. I say, print out the past performances on Friday....study them like you always would.....watch the appropriate race replays, and place your wager accordingly.
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You've written the best post that I have seen here regarding this Derby. And all Derbys for that matter.
Fans get severe cases of Derby Fever. Good handicappers can do the same. Professionals don't.
I'm reminded of the pro, my mentor who has been at this for over four decades and has taught me what I know about handicapping. His thought on the Derby is that "it's one race only, it's one day only, in a year of racing."
I'm surprised by the degree of
absolutes here--ie, they crawled, the time was so slow, he's my top pick, these are my top five, this one's a toss, this one didn't beat anything, the stretch run has a downhill grade so don't be impressed etc, etc, etc.
Much of which has been stated before yesterday.
Three weeks before the race has been run, almost three weeks before the post positions are drawn.
This race is about post position, break, and trip. How someone has ANY of this concluded three weeks out is amazing.
The past performances and the replays are your aids after the post draw, where one has days, still, to draw sound opinion and make wagering decisions.
What does one do for an encore when the curtain draws after the race?
Taking a stand is excellent, but this far ahead of post draw? I'd rather wait for the goods to work with.