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Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS
I don't know if the betting public will make Curlin the favorite on race-day, for no other reason than the fact that he's only had three career starts under him....
You'll start to hear more and more of "No Kentucky Derby winner since Apollo, in 1882, has won the race without starting at age 2." the 125 year gap in that trend will be beaten to death in the press.
I realize Indian Charlie was the KY Derby favorite, with just four races under him---but, he did race at 2 (not that it means anything anyway) and was a really sensational raw talent. He made his stakes debut in the Santa Anita Derby, and toyed with a very strong field. Real Quiet, who missed the triple crown by a nose, was 2nd to him. Artax, who would win a championship sprinting the next year was a distant 3rd. Many of the also-rans improved their form in stakes next time out.
Indian Charlie's Santa Anita Beyer is still the highest ever published in the DRF in the history of that race...and his final time broke Affirmed's stakes record. As super as Curlin has been in all three starts, IC brought a bigger repute into the Derby.
I think Street Sense will be a very slight favorite in the end---and I agree with you...the favorite should be in the 7/2-to-5/1 range.
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On May 5th a lot of people are going to wager on the Derby that don't follow racing. They are going to see an undefeated horse who has crushed his competition thus far. I'll be shocked if Curlin is not the favorite in this race.
Look at the Derby Futures if you believe I'm wrong.
Where it gets interesting is are his 3 races thus far enough to give him the foundation to win the Derby? Trainers are going lighter on their horses more than ever and this year is no different. Last weeks darling Nobiz might be an overlay here. Any Given Saturday will be at least 10-1 and with 4 weeks to prepared, and diffferent race tactics he could give Pletcher his first TC win.
There's a lot information and variables to ponder over the next 3 weeks. Good luck in figuring it out.