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Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS
Last week, in the three major KY Derby prep races, the host track carded only one other two-turn dirt route race on each occasion.
This not only makes things difficult for figure makers who split route and sprint variants, but it also makes it hard on analytical handicappers who are looking to evaluate these performances.
It's interesting to see that Cowtown Cat recieved the fastest number of the three preps on BRIS's computerized speed figures...and by a clear-cut margin. While Tiago recieved the slowest number. The Beyer figures had the opposite occuring.
In fact, the 108 BRIS figure by Cowtown Cat is OUTRIGHT the fastest BRIS number earned in any Derby prep. How strong is it? By comparison, Holy Bull's career best BRIS was a 112. Horse of the year A. P. Indy's career top BRIS was just a 110.
What no one's figure will tell you is that Cowtown Cat certainly had everything working in his favor Saturday. For instance,
* Of the 10 dirt races run at Hawthorne on Saturday, A remarkable 7 were won in wire-to-wire fashion! The three who failed all finished 2nd. Meaning, the horse who held the lead after a 1/4 mile compiled a dazzling 10-7-3-0 record. That seems to obviously indicate a potential speed bias.
* Inside posts have been dominant all meet at Hawthorne, and that trend continued Saturday. Post position 1 racked up four winners (paying $27.80, $11.00, $4.80, and $7.40) and had three 2nd place finishes. By simply boxing the three inside posts in exactas, you'd have hit five of ten exactas (paying $121.60, $23.80, $28.80, $88.60, and $21.00) and by simply boxing the four inside posts in trifectas, you'd have hit an amazing 7 out of 10 trifectas. In the ILL Derby, the four inside posts made up a $2,081.00 superfecta. Every winner on dirt raced inside for most of the running according to the charts.
Much like in Southwest Stakes with Hard Spun, heavily favored Cobalt Blue, who is typically a speed horse, found himself rating off a soft early pace, and three wide throughout on an inside-speed track. The result was a 7th place finish, beaten 18+ lengths, at even money odds. The most hardened students of trips will tell you that he ran just as good on Saturday, as he did in his SA Stakes win, where he had a DREAM front-end trip on a slow pace.
While Cobalt Blue was the victim of circumstances, Cowtown Cat was obviously strongly aided by them. If you believe the very modest 98 Beyer Speed figure he recieved---than he's a very good bet to finish 12th or worse in the Kentucky Derby. However, if you believe the spectacular 108 BRIS figure he earned, it's not quite as easy to assume he'll finish way up the track, however...it is highly unlikely that he gets everything in his favor like he did Saturday.
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