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Originally Posted by Kasept
Phil,
Thanks very much.. It's been a wild few days! I've learned so much the past 18 months handicapping for the radio show. It hasn't changed my handicapping, but it's VASTLY improved my selection process and especially the multi-race structures. For the longest time it was my approach to try andbeat chalk EVERY SINGLE race. But knowing that people are betting what I suggest has been a cautionary note when 'tossing' favorites and I've been much more vigilant about including horses that 'have every right to be favored'. And having multi-race and "in-race" suggestions to make, it's easy for people to util.ize that chalk in the P3-P4-P6 but try and beat it within the race itself (EX-TRI-SUPER).
There's not a better feeling out there than knowing that people are doing well from the suggestions.
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Great point, in the P6 you almost HAVE to have a solid chalk to stand on or it makes the wager financially impossible to hit. Even if there's 2-3 favorites that win in the sequence the payoff can be well into the 5 figures. Heck, yesterday at SA (NYCOTB was taking no bets for Easter... SOL for all here... I would have played your ticket or a slightly expanded version) 4-5 favorites won and the P6 STILL paid almost 10x the win parlay. The great book "Exotic Betting" by Steve Crist makes the point that in a P3 sequence your 'expectation' is 1 of the 3 races will be won by a favorite, which really opens your eyes in multi-race wager strategy!