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Originally Posted by NTamm1215
BTW, I actually wanted to ask you something on this topic. We've discussed trip handicapping before, in relation to the Breeders' Futurity and though we might not have completely agreed, I very clearly understood your point and respect it tremendously. Anyway, don't you think trip handicapping is in a way the most subjective type of handicapping in horse racing? I mean figures can't really be disputed, but you being a more intellectual person are able to infer much more from a race than say others. I mean, I've been around horse racing a long time, but you are definitely going to be able to identify things from a race that I won't.
I think, and you kind of allude to this a bit, that most people see trip handicapping as identifying trouble that a horse was in and betting him next time out. That's not nearly all of it though. There are countless others. One that I like is when a speed horse breaks slowly, gets absolutely gunned from there, then tires. He/she often proves to be a good bet next time out with a more consistent trip.
So, I guess I was asking a question there, I'm just interested in your opinion a bit more, as I'm always interested in honing what minute handicapping skills I may have. Thanks in advance.
NT
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It's a great question and I think you are right about a lot of what you say. It is subjective but also supremely logical. The biggest problem people that don't understand have was correctly pointed out by you...they see trouble and then look to bet that horse the next time it runs. That is yet another recipe for losing.
To me, what people need to do is sort of take the whole trip apart and then put it back together and view it as a whole. The most basic mistake people make involves a horse who is getting a perfect trip, maybe saving ground behind the pace, and he/she has to steady or wait in traffic for room, and then perhaps gets free too late and ends up losing a relatively close race. The initial reaction of " if that horse had gotten out it would have won " may well be true, but it would have won with a perfect trip, and the sound horseplayer would downgrade that performance the next time the horse runs. Instead, they mistakenly upgrade it. Or perhaps I should say substantially upgrade it.
The example you gave may be a good one, though it would depend on the horse and where it was racing and is racing next, but certainly you have pointed out the essense of effective trip handicapping, which is finding horses who's performances were compromised by events during the running of the race. Most of this is often very subtle, often more subtle than the tough trip Invasor had that DrugS correctly pointed out, as it can be about understanding the dynamics of a race and how that helped or hindered the competitors.
Sometimes trips can be as simple as trouble or being wide, assuming the horse still performed well or was severly compromised by a bias, and assuming that trouble did in fact severly hamper them, hopefully in a way that isn't obvious. Because, identifying trouble is fine, but only useful if you can also find a way to use it to make money in the future.