[moses]

Well, Bellacose was a really bad pick. I’d have never bet her at 7/2 or whatever she went off at…but what can you do. Risk Threshold went off around 15/1 and ran a pretty good race but just wasn’t good enough, finishing 4th.

$240.00 wagered
$278.50 returned

Saturday.

Race 4. #2 Run Wild 15/1. This half-sister to Drake’s Passage has put in a few bullet workouts and note Linda hits with 13% of first time starters and she enlists Jose Ortiz to debut this filly (Linda and Jose boast a combined 30% win rate on 2YOs over the last 5 years). I would have liked to see a 5 furlong workout mixed in there but I like what I see at 15/1 and that price should hold if heavy favorite Tennessee Belle stays in this race.

Race 10. #2 Good Cheer 8/5. I was very high on La Cara last race but things are very different this time around. La Cara will likely be alone on the lead again (though I’m curious how Queen Azteca who seems to have mostly sprint pedigree will be ridden), but I think this race is a question of which horse can perform at 10 furlongs and I’ve got questions about La Cara and she’s not going to be 7/1 here. Good Cheer has always looked like she’s wanted to go further and she’ll get the chance here. It’s also possible she bounced a bit last out after a big performance in the Kentucky Oaks and she’s now gotten some rest and his ready to fire her best again. Lots of respect for Nitrogen but I just can’t back her here. La Cara will be too short of a price for me. Good Cheer will be singled in every one of my bets. I will also be finding a way to use Margie’s Intention underneath as she’s another horse who just looks like she wants to keep running (and she had no chance last out at Delaware Park where the track was a conveyor belt). She’s going to run a big race, I just don’t think she’s good enough to beat her stablemate.