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Old 07-14-2024, 05:15 AM
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Kasept Kasept is offline
Steve Byk
 
Join Date: May 2006
Location: Greenwich, NY
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Above are the Thoro-Graph looks for the top 3 in the 9th yesterday that produced an $824 triple and I want to slip in an explainer..

TAKING CANDY had the TG Sire Index pattern opportunity I talk about all the time in his first start as a 4yo. Note that Twirling Candy progeny have a TGI (Thoro-Graph Index) of 16 at 2, 13 at 3 and 10.75 at 4.

Taking Candy improved 3+ points from 2 to 3 (15.75 down to 12.25) and was now making his 4yo debut having established a career top of 8 as a 3yo, which happened to come at Saratoga in the ALW before the good try in the Saranac (10). His sire index suggests improvement as a 4yo of 2+ points, so you could project him running in the 5-6 range. At 10-1 with the way Cherie is going, he felt like the right price key and he looked a winner every step under confident Jose Lezcano at 6-1.

TIDAL FORCES established rock solid credentials with the 4's at Gulfstream over the winter and was a little dirtied up from the Danger Hour try (9) and off turf run (7). At 10-1 (and then crazily ignored at 30-1 in the live betting), he was a one of the ones you wanted to use with Taking Candy.

IRISH ACES was the obvious fave and horse to beat, but as I wrote, a regression from the big career best (2) could open things up for alternatives.

I used BEUYS who had run lots of 5's as well. He was a mild, chasing 7th. The result of Taking Candy, Tidal Forces and Irish Aces tripped the $824.50 tri.

GEORGIE W had paired 3 straights 7's and need to move forward and did to be 4th at 8-1 pushing the Super to $7,650.

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Last edited by Kasept : 07-14-2024 at 05:56 AM.
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