How about just avoiding those races?
There should be enough other races for you to bet.
To sort of answer your question, there is no magic formula for baby races or off track races or maiden races. There is no substitute for putting in real handicapping work. If you’re willing to put the work in, there are some things you can do to improve your understanding of some of these races a bit… but in my experience most people are not interested in the work.
Workouts are a good start in baby and maiden races but there is so much more to a work than just the number so if you don’t see the work (and know what to look for) it’s not much help. Workout reports are okay, but can be costly.
For the most part, following the money is a good first indicator in baby races. Connections play a big role as well. One thing you can look at is when the horse was sold and for what price. A horse that was sold at one of the 2 year old sales this year for a high price probably has at least a little talent….or might be quick. That doesn’t necessarily mean they are going to win, but it’s a start. Most of the 2 year old sales have websites and you can view the horses work at the sale.
Another thing I look at it is how much the sire stands for and then what the horse sold for. Obviously the Into Mischief babies are going to sell for a lot but an obscure or lesser known stallion having a baby sell for 5-10 times his stud fee might indicate some talent.
It’s not an exact science but I don’t like to see a horse have 2 or 3 gate works in a row leading up to a race. To me that means the horse isn’t good from the gate, and the trainer is trying to get them better from the gate, but thats just my opinion.
On sloppy and muddy tracks, try and focus on horses with good dirt form. So many off the turf races are bet like they are still the grass that there are opportunities.
|