Quote:
Originally Posted by moses
Final odds were 4/5 but you were wise not to bet against him.
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Not betting against Justify saved me some money, but it doesn't necessarily mean it was 'wise'.
If fact, my thinking/posting was somewhat fuzzy. I wanted to bet against Justify if there was, IMO, too much money bet on him. I was writing "1-1" odds as my threshold for 'too much money'. I should have been using '50% of the win pool' as my threshold. And 50% of the win pool equates to 3-5 odds.
My original gut feeling was that Justify had something like a 33%-40% chance to win. But when I made a line, I came up with a 45% chance to win. Granted, I gave Justify every benefit of doubt, since I was primarily interested in betting against him. With Justify taking just 45% of the actual win pool, right in line with my own estimate, none of the other horses' odds looked attractive. Tenfold was the closest. I had him at 12-1, and he went off at 10.70-1.