I've been working on a project for my track for several months. I need to finish it by the opening of Calder in April '07.
I'm looking hard at owner intent/profiling. Stats are widely available regarding trainer performance and "intent," but I've long postulated that successful (and unsuccessful) class moves can be correlated to owner at lower class levels, specificaly limited winner claiming races.
I have a good level of success betting races for claiming non-winners or limited winners from $10k to $25k. I've gotten through my work for 2005 and 2006 in terms of owner impact on performance in these class categories, especially with respect to class drops/raises and race timing (ie, 2nd race at current class after a lower class win 2 back).
The results so far are interesting and very useful. I'm busy working on 2004 now and gathering what I need for 2003.
Unfortunately, I'm missing 3 months of 2003 Calder PPs and charts. That's making it a bit tougher. If anyone has June-Aug 2003 Calder PPs or charts I'd be willing to pay for the package.
good luck in 2007. time flies.
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