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Originally Posted by kp319
I lost a bet on this election, a steak dinner at Peter Lugers in Brooklyn Hats off to you for outperforming every big time pollster around. I hope your horsebets go as well in 2017.
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Quote:
Originally Posted by geeker2
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Thanks guys - following this closely has been one of the most fascinating experiences I've ever gotten myself involved with.
Coach mentioned Bill Mitchell earlier, and really were it not for his selflessness, taking the time to explain the science behind why certain groups (and subgroups) get weighted and how to determine accurate weighting, and offering explanations on how to interpret the demographics, I would likely not have gotten as involved.
Dude deserves immense credit. He was tireless and when he wasn't helping breakdown what was coming out, he was getting attacked, regularly, by "polling geniuses" like Frank Luntz and Nate Silver.
Turns out there was a perfect storm of over estimating Clinton support, underestimating college graduate (*educated*) whites, and most importantly the fact that Blacks and legal Latinos seem care more about good jobs & safe communities than they do some invisible, blind allegiance to the Democratic Party. He carried 10% more of the Latino vote than did Romney in 2012, and similar numbers among Blacks.
Only one poll, the LA Times/USC poll - utilized an enthusiasm algorithm Which had Trump on top virtually every single day since the conventions. In an ordinary election cycle, this likely would not have come into play and because of this, was considered an outlier by 538 and not given it's proper credence.