Derby Future Pool Starters
 

For those involved in the "All Others" bet. I have Pool 3 All others.

Feel free to point out any mistakes I made...

POOL 1

Essential Quality
Highly Motivated
Hot Rod Charlie
Keepmeinmind
King Fury
Midnight Bourbon
Super Stock

POOL 2

Essential Quality
Highly Motivated
Hot Rod Charlie
Keepmeinmind
Mandaloun
Medina Spirit
Midnight Bourbon

POOL 3

Essential Quality
Highly Motivated
Hot Rod Charlie
Keepmeinmind
Mandaloun
Medina Spirit
Midnight Bourbon

POOL 4

Essential Quality
Highly Motivated
Hot Rod Charlie
Keepmeinmind
Mandaloun
Medina Spirit
Midnight Bourbon

Only 7 from Pool 4 is kinda comical.

11/26-29: KY Derby Future Wager 2020-21 ~ Final Pool 1 (pdf)

3 Essential Quality (8) 8.20-1 ~ $18.40
6 Highly Motivated (18) 18.90-1 ~ $39.80
7 Hot Rod Charlie (34) 34.70-1 $ ~ $71.40
9 Keepmeinmind (19) 19.00-1 ~ $40.00
10 King Fury (60) 60.20-1 ~ $ 122.40
12 Midnight Bourbon (59) 59.20-1 ~ $ 120.40
21 Super Stock (99) 103.80-1 ~ $209.60
24 All Other Three Year Olds (6/5) 1.30-1 ~ $4.60

EXACTA PROBABLES

I split my All Others bet between Pools 2 & 3 this year, but ended up with the same horses to pull for on Saturday in both Pools. Too bad we don't have it all in Pool 4 at 7-1 with the same horses.

We're in good shape, IMO, despite having had some bad luck in the post draw. With your 3.3-1 in Pool 3, you have an edge on the bet even if the 13 All Others horses have just a 25% to win. I think their combined chance to win is about 40%. What do you think? My own Pool 2 & 3 bets averaged out to give me slightly over 2.2-1 if an All Others wins. If I'm right about the 40% chance to win, then I've got a solid edge.

When I say "Good luck with your Derby bet", you can be extra confident that I really mean it! :)

I’d kill myself if my “big edge” was trying to get 2 or 3-1 in a future pool.