4/10: Aqueduct (7th-10th); Keeneland (6th-11th); Oaklawn (9th)
 

Caught the nice late P4 at Keeneland Friday for $422.55 on strength of overlaid Pletcher comebacker Commandeered ($15.00) in the 8th and square priced Elision ($16.40) to start the sequence in the 7th. Good way to begin fun and important Saturday, as the Blue Grass and Arkansas Derby seek to sort out the Derby earnings quagmire. In addition to the second half of the Keeneland action and the Arky, Aqueduct has the $250,000 Late P4, where Tony Dutrow appears to have a solid single for the Comely in She'll Be Doggone. Hope you did well Friday and are excited about the penultimate Derby Trail prep season Saturday!


AQUEDUCT


POST-SCRATCHES


7th: NYB-MDN CLM, 3+, 6f (P4, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #8 Buffalo Tsunami 3-1 5th
Best Value: #10 Dade City 12-1 4th
Next Best: #2 Nearly There 7-2 3rd
Exotic Use: #6 Measure Up 6-1 WON


8th: CLM/N1Y, 4+, 6f (P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #2 Overextended 5-2 5th
Best Value: #9 Api Mohkat 8-1 6th
Next Best: #6 Golden Man 4-1 3rd
Super Add: #4 Matthew T C 6-1 4th


9th: 61st Comely (G3), 3yo-F, 1m (DD, Super)

Most Likely: #4 She'll Be Doggone 5-2 DNF
Best Value: #1 Indian Burn 10-1 4th
Next Best: #8 Touching Beauty 3-1 WON
Super Add: #2 C C's Pal 6-1 3rd


10th: NYB-ALW/N1X, 3+, 8.5f-T (Super)

Most Likely: #11 Relatively Ready 3-1 3rd
Best Value: #3 Next Day 10-1 8th
Next Best: #6 Monastir 6-1 5th
Super Add: #4 Volponi Dragon 8-1 5th


<$75 P4 Play:

7: 2-8-10
8: 2-4-6-9
9: 4
10: 3-4-5-6-8-11

3x4x1x6 = $72



KEENELAND


POST-SCRATCHES


6th: 14th Shakertown (G3), 3+, 5.5f-T (P6, P4, P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #1 Chamberlain Bridge 8-5 4th
Next Best: #2 Silver Timber 7-5 WON
Best Value: #4 Free Brave 12-1 5th


7th: 24th Commonwealth (G2), 3+, 7f (P3, DD)

A turf sprint stake, filled to capacity elsewhere, draws 7, and then Keeneland puts together this assembly for $250k. If it was being run in New York, the internet would be full of screeds about how pathetic and inept the racetrack is, but somehow the teflon palace, the darling of armchair racing secretaries, is immune to criticism..

Most Likely: #3 Ravalo 8-5 5th
Next Best: #5 Congressional Page 2-1 2nd
Best Value: #2 Not for Silver 3-1 4th


8th: 22nd Jenny Wiley (G2), F&M-4+, 8.5f-T (P4, P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #2 Forever Together 7-5 2nd
Best Value: #6 Quiet Harbor 8-1 7th
Next Best: #5 Carribean Sunset 4-1 4th
Super Add: #7 Hot Cha Cha 6-1 3rd


9th: 86th Blue Grass (G1), 3yo, 9f (P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #9 Interactif (7-2): Multiple turf stake winner has right package for this.. 4th
Best Value: #7 Paddy O'Prado (10-1): Keeps improving; Showed tactical gears last.. 2nd
Next Best: #1 Odysseus (7-2): Padua hopeful needs purse portion; Working well over strip.. 9th
Super Add: #4 Make Music for Me (6-1): Credentialed Cali bay is going to be overlooked.. 6th


<$75 All Stakes P4 Play:

6: 1-2-4
7: 2-3-5
8: 2-5-6-7
9: 1-4-7-9

3x3x4x4 = 144 x .50 = $72


10th: ALW/N1X, 3yo-F, 1m-T (DD, Super)

Most Likely: #5 Hatheer 5-2 4th
Best Value: #6 La Gran Balladora 6-1 2nd
Next Best: #3 How Far to Heaven 7-2 6th
Super Add: #8 Zodiac Girl 9-2 5th


11th: MSW, F&M-4+, 8.5f (Super, Super High 5)

Most Likely: #5 Wynchase 2-1 WON
Best Value: #8 Llamrei 6-1 6th
Next Best: #1 Dream Delight 5-1 5th
Super Add: #4 Here Oui Go Again 5-1 4th


<$75 P4 Play:

8: 2-5-6-7
9: 1-4-7-9
10: 3-5-6
11: 1-5-8

4x4x3x3 = 144 x .50 = $72



OAKLAWN


PRE-SCRATCHES


9th: 74th Arkansas Derby (G1), 3yo, 9f (P4, Super)

Most Likely: #2 Dublin (7-2): Back with Thompson; Gets ideal slot for staklk and pounce run.. 3rd
Next Best: #3 Noble's Promise (2-1): Albarado now with better feel for launching honest colt's bid.. 5th
Best Value: #5 Uh Oh Bango (15-1): Zona-bred needs pocket change to assure Derby berth.. 4th
Super Add: #1 Super Saver (9-5): Pletcher calls WinStar bay unrateable; Pressure aplenty here.. 2nd


Good luck!
Steve

Great line.....the "teflon palace'.....that name should stick. And you are 100% correct.

Steve a question you. Not considering Saratoga, do you think NYRA is currently delivering a quality product? If so why do you rarely Cap a AQU card or carry their races on your show. Not too long ago you capped Aqu every day and carried all their races on your show. We complain because the short fields are the Rule not the Exception. Hopefully you can answer without ripping me a new one.

The 'quality' of the product means different things to everyone. Competitive racing with nice sized fields, at any level, has quality from a wagering viewpoint. In terms of what PJ Campo has to work with, the product in New York suits me fine. My point about Keeneland's veneer is that, in general right now, there are small fields going in stakes races everywhere. That's a function of too few horses of quality available and too many stakes races to choose from. Campo cleverly has dropped the overnight stake program for the Belmont meet which grows condition purses and simultaneously will push good horses into the real stakes and lesser horses into allowance and high claimers.

My additional point was that the undue vitriole unendingly directed at NYRA has an underlying agenda that has nothing to actually do with field size in stakes. If there was real, legitimate angst on that topic, there would have been threads at all the horsey boards deriding the pitiful Beaumont, Madison, Commonwealth and Shakertown fields Keeneland offered this week. There wasn't...

As to the show and capping AQU, I never featured as much New York winter racing because it doesn't suit the radio Wed-Fri with only one race (the 9th) available to broadcast before Daylight Savings Time starts. As a result, I do a lot of Gulfstream (7th-9th on air), and complied with requests for more Santa Anita capping/audio this winter. I'm making the transition back to the New York action now.

also caught my eye if forever together doesn't come back off the shelf in the same form. interested to see how she does getting away from the conveyer belt that was the gulfstreem turf again this season. using

best of luck today

-bt-

Scratches & Changes




Saturday, April 10, 2010



Race Description
1 1st Race -- NO CHANGES

2nd Race
#6--Silver La Belle--Jockey change to Miguel Mena

3rd Race
#4--Rich City Dude--SCRATCH

4th Race -- NO CHANGES

5th Race -- NO CHANGES

6th Race -- Shakertown (G3)
#7--Affirmatif--SCRATCH

7th Race -- Commonwealth (G2) -- NO CHANGES

8th Race -- Jenny Wiley (G2)
#4--Stardom Bound--SCRATCH

9th Race -- Toyota Blue Grass (G1) -- NO CHANGES

10th Race
#9--Ithinkihadthatone--SCRATCH
#10--Ambitoness--SCRATCH

11th Race
#2--Broad Quality--SCRATCH



Track Conditions, Maintenance & Weather
Saturday, April 10, 2010 8:00 AM
Polytrack is Fast
Turf is Firm
After Training
The Gallop Master will be used at settings of 3.5 inches.

Water will be added to the track.

During Races
After races 1-2-4-6-8-10, The Gallop Master will be used at settings of 3 inches.

Turf course grass height is at 6 inches and the rail is down.

Turf course was watered last night.


Weather Conditions at 04/10/10 10:45am
Air Temperature: 55°F | Humidity: 45% | Pressure: 29.65"
Avg Wind Speed: 10.9 mph | Gust: 15.0 mph | Wind Direction: 202°
Rainfall Last 15 Minutes: 0.00 in. | Track Temperature: 53°

COMPLETE AQU SCR/CHG'S


7TH

1 (poe) Identical Dreams Early



10TH

10 Full Tilt Noogie Early

I love Dublin today as well. GL Steve

Steve......
 

I love the single at Aqueduct, She'll be Doggone looks like very strong indeed.
I like Congressional Page quite a bit in the Commonwealth as well. Best of luck today!:$:

Liston is a late scratch.

Most important change is Gomez picking up a mount #5 in the last race. He isn't hanging around for an MSW for no reason.

Aqueduct $1 pick 4

1. 2 8
2. 1 2 3
3. 1 4 5
4. 3 7

[*]Keenland $1 pick 6

1. 2
2. 2 4
3. 3 6
4. 5 9
5. 1
6. 5 6

Steve

I made the same mistake as well earlier this AM but the NYRA website as well as Youbet and Twinspires all have this horse scheduled to run in the 7th.
This is a key horse IMO for the late P4 today.


GL

DD

Got it.. It changed on the NYRA website..

That's why the link is there, so people can check...

i like coolcullen times in the 4th at keeneland. 5-1 is fair imo

no chance with that pace

in the 5th at keeneland my enticement figures to improve second out. wire to wire threat

Roman Chestnut in The Comely (4:50 p.m.)
Wasted Tears in The Jenny Wiley (4:55 p.m.)
Paddy O' Prado in The Bluegrass (5:30 p.m.)

All right, now that Wasted Tears has won, I'll venture into the Arkansas Derby with an exacta box of Noble''s Promise/New Madrid

Odysseus campaign not managed very well. I guess we all kind of thought this may happen.