11/11: Aqueduct (Full card)
 

Saturday an exersize in frustration, especially at Calder, with principals identified nicely and agonizing misses in both P4's. No beat was tougher than the late quad though, where 15-1 Marchesa carried hopes of a $1,500+ score within yards of the wire before 5-2 Demurrer came late. $172 tri offered a bit of a consolation. In the early all stakes P4, 30-1 Jack Price Juvy upsetter He's Eze was my third choice in race tabs, but single of Wise Answer knelled death to hopes for monster $5,373 payout. Hope your day was better...


AQUEDUCT


1st: The Smartangle, F&M-3+, 6f (DD)

Best Value: #2 Swap Fliparoo 7-2: Chief adds blinks.. 3rd
Most Likely: #7 Stormy Kiss 5-2: Tagg on amazing stakes skien.. 4th
Exotics Use: #6 More Angels 3-1: Levine 4yo will gets front end company.. WON


2nd: NYSS-Thunder Rumble, C&G-3+, 7f (P4, P3)

Best Value: #7 Private Number 15-1: Race 3 back competitive; Best underneath.. 3rd
Most Likely: #3 Gold and Roses 9-5: Bush doffs blinks to shakeup 5yo.. 2nd
Exotics Use: #2 Stunt Man 2-1: Gelding always around at wire.. WON


3rd: NYSS-Great White Way, C&G-2yo, 6f (P3)

Best Value: #2 LATE SCR
Most Likely: #6 Spanky Fischbein 4-5: Rig sat out 4 weeks after Bongard placement.. WON
Exotics Use: #1 Fort Drum 5-1: $135k bay legged up in quality lawn stake 10/21.. 3rd


4th: NYSS-Perfect Arc, F&M-3+, 8.5f-T (P6, P3, Super)

Best Value: #9 Hoosick Falls 20-1: Can get piece if grass to her liking.. 8th
Most Likely: #3 FACTUAL CONTENDER 6-5: Tagg 6yo lays over these.. WON
Exotics Use: #6 Higher Incentive 15-1: Rested; Eligible for big effort.. 2nd
Super Add: #1 Follow My Dream 6-1: Moves back to cozy ground.. 4th

.10 SUPER PLAY: #3 over 1-4/SCR-6-7-8-9 (1x5x4x3 = 60/10 = $6.00) 3-6-7-1 pays $12.07


5th: NYSS-Fifth Avenue, 2yo-F, 6f (P3, GS)

Best Value: #2 Ocala Gator 12-1: Upset chance; Pilot hit LRL stake Sat. @ $50.. 6th
Most Likely: #9 Noble Fire 9-5: Best of the 3 L. Rice gals signed on.. 3rd
Exotics Use: #6 Beam of Love 2-1: No match for state's 2 best baby girls last pair.. 5th


<$50 P4 Play:

2: 2-3-7
3: 1-2-4-5-6
4: 3
5: 2-6-9

3x5x1x3 = $45


6th: 51st Long Island H. (Gr. III), F&M-3+, 12f (P4, DD)

Best Value: #2 Green Girl 4-1: Now with Clement; Goes FTL.. 4th
Most Likely: #5 ROYAL HIGHNESS 7-5: May get cut in ground and easy trip.. 6th
Exotics Use: #1e Tanaka entry 5-2: 1a Barancella came at Mrs. Lindsay & Sealy at WO.. 2nd/5th
Longshot: #7 Mary Louhana 15-1: Offers tri value under top pair.. 7th


7th: NYSS-Staten Island, F&M-3+, 7f (P3, Super)

Best Value: #2 Magic Momentum 12-1: Has jumped up 2nd/break before.. 4th
Most Likely: #9 Cammy's Choice 7-5: KMc bay 2nd too often; Adds Garcia and should 'trip'.. 3rd
Exotics Use: #8 Laurentide Ice 6-1: NYB stakes reg rarely misfires.. 8th
Super Add: #7 Motor City Mama 10-1: Has changed to stalking style lately.. 9th


8th: NYSS-Cormorant, C&G-3+, 8.5f-T (DD)

Best Value: #7 Get Serious 5-1: Forbes' red gets blinks; Chased First Defense.. 6th
Most Likely: #2 Hammock 4-1: Sharp Schosberg grey gets 8# from ML fave below.. 4th
Exotics Use: #4 Red Zipper 3-1: Morrison's 4yo City Zip quite capable.. WON
Consider: #1a The Confidence Man 6-1: Both very intriguing in this good events.. 3rd


9th: MSW, F&M-3+, 1m (Super)

Dreadful bunch.. None can win..

Best Value: #1 Greely's Girl 30-1: No worse than any here.. 9th
Most Likely: #11 Luck 9-2: Better last with blinks but Corny goes below.. 2nd
Exotics Use: #9 Golden Manna 5-2: C. Velasquez sticks around for her.. WON
Super Add: #8 Lucky Val 5-1: Reversed trend of being distanced last pair.. 8th


<$50 P4 Play:

6: 1-5
7: 2-9
8: 1-2-4-7
9: 1-9-11

2x2x4x3 = $48


Good luck!
Steve

Thanks Steve!

The pick4 looks murderous even with a single or small cover on 1st leg. Hope large multi payouts continue at Big A...

Think I will punch your early pk4 play and hope to fund a deep late ticket singling Royal Highness.

Good Luck!

What a wonderful card at The Big A today. So glad to see such a card so late in the year. Kudos to NYRA.

Early Pick 4 at The Big A

$1 Pick 4 Wheel

Leg A - 1-2-3-8
Leg B - 6
Leg C - 1-3-5-6
Leg D - 6-9

$32

Leg A - 3-8
Leg B - 1-2-4-6
Leg C - 1-3-5-6
Leg D - 9

$32

Steve, I agree that 9th is pitiful, hard to make a case for anyone. May play two singles, 2 or 3 deep in the 8th race and all on the bottom in late pk4. Right now looking at 5/9/2,4,10/ALL.

I hope this 9 win the 5th. That way I will get like $10.50 back.

Here is what we are looking at for late Pk4. Have a feeling the late will get cracked wide open, but opt against large ticket...

Ticket #1
R6 - 5
R7 - 2,5,9
R8 - 2,4,7,10
R9 - 1,9,11
$36

Ticket #2
R6 - 5
R7 - 9
R8 - 2,4,10
R9 - ALL
$33

VERY interesting early action here in the 6th. . .

Late Pick 4

$1 Pick 4 Wheel

Leg A - 1-2-3-5
Leg B - 9
Leg C - 2-4-7-8
Leg D - 9

$16

Leg A - 1-2-4-5
Leg B - 3-7-8-9
Leg C - 2
Leg D - 6-8-9-11

$64

Leg A - 1-3-5-6
Leg B - 9
Leg C - 2-4
Leg D - 3-4-9

$24

Well there you go. . . That makes handicapping a bit easier. . .

By the way- it's pretty clear that the rail on the turf is awful today as it was yesterday. . . I'm pretty sure that's why Golden Strategy packed it in like that yesterday- he was on the rail the whole time, set soft fractions, but had NOTHING left. . . Then all the horses that were on the outside were running at the end- look where Dave was. . . Wolfson wouldn't ship up with a horse like that unless he was live so i'm thinking it may have been the track. . . The same thing happened here to a lesser degree- the front-runner didn't really figure and she was a little keen but the way she died after those slow fractions was a little strange. . . and by the time the jock finally realized what was going on he swung her wide to find better ground but it was too late. ..

I pretty much have to agree with you on this. The rail appears to be the wrong place on the turf. And I agree that Wolfson wouldnt ship unless he had a "live" horse.

The Big A race 7

Going have to wager a tri here....

$10 tri

3
with
9
with
5-8

$20

Mammock

Damn, thought Tamberino had chance to be part of beef in the pick4. Doesn't matter for me as we blew single...