Originally Posted by RolloTomasi (Post 1125382)

He was fairly sharp from the gate in all 3 FG starts although he stumbled slightly in the Lecomte and lost his hind end after a handful of strides in the Louisiana Derby.

At any rate, Mark Casse said he plans to send him straight to the lead in the post-draw quotes. However it should be noted that Tax's trainer (post 2) plans on shifting over to the rail whether War of Will breaks or not.


I would prefer if Improbable showed more early foot, if for no other reason than his riders wouldn't be compelled to make the silly middle moves he's made in his last two.

However, at this stage, I think it's a moot point. Considering his gate antics last out, the bad rides in both his starts this year, and the pummeling he took in the stretch in the Arkansas Derby, my guess is that Improbable has busted a gut and will be a non-factor in the Derby.

Hopefully I'm wrong--because he's talented--but if he does tank hopefully we can at least look forward to a strong 4yo campaign a la Collected in 2017.

Originally Posted by Alabama Stakes (Post 1125383)

I think it’s because he looks like a cross between a Jesus lizard 🦎 and the Pampelmousse when he runs. You should be glad about 20-1. What’s better than your derby hoss being a good price.

Originally Posted by Alabama Stakes (Post 1125387)

Since you’re covered in the win hole, maybe try to take him second and third in the tri or super for a possible big balloons score.

Originally Posted by richard burch (Post 1125391)

5-Improbable (City Zip), Bob Baffert, Irad Ortiz Jr., 6-1
16-Game Winner (Candy Ride), Bob Baffert, Joel Rosario, 5-1
17-Roadster (Quality Road), Bob Baffert, Florent Geroux, 6-1

...those are some pretty good odds for Baffert horses.

going to BOX EX 5,6,11,12,16,17

I expect Omaha to be the PT favorite. If he wins I would break even, if he comes in 2nd there is a little profit, if he comes in 3rd it will be stacks.

Originally Posted by richard burch (Post 1125436)

Who are the best "mudders" in this race?

Originally Posted by Konk (Post 1125447)

Originally Posted by philcski (Post 1125388)

Good field and the draw was reasonable for most of the contenders but the morning line is terrible. It's at 138% so expect some horses to float up from their original number.

Originally Posted by Dunbar (Post 1125456)

philcski, that 138% (the total of implied probabilities) corresponds to a hypothetical takeout of 28%. The difference between that 28% and CD's 17.5% takeout isn't as big as one might expect, at least as far as putting up ML line odds goes. If you force the original ML numbers up to fit a 17.5% takeout, then OB's 4-1 would have become 9-2. GW's 5-1 becomes (almost) 6-1. A 20-1 becomes 23-1.

So while you're right that the numbers should float up a bit from the ML, the overall effect may not be very big.

Originally Posted by philcski (Post 1125462)

I don’t disagree that horse by horse the impact is relatively small... but that’s because it’s a 20 horse field. Let’s take a 3 horse field instead:
Horse A: 4/5
Horse B: 2/1
Horse C: ?

At a proper ML matching takeout, it should be 2/1. At the 138% ML, it’s 1/1, so a huge difference.

My point is on the most important race in the world, where the participants have been known for weeks, shouldn’t we have a pretty tight ML?

Originally Posted by LITF (Post 1125486)

Any thoughts on the undercard races?

I’m thinking about singling Whitmore to start the pick 5. Seems like Mitole will have to handle some serious heat for the first time. Kinda like Social Paranoia in the American. Hoping Global Campaign draws in to the Pat Day. If not, maybe Hog Creek Hustle. I’ve already lost some money on him might as well keep that going. Qurbaan in the Turf Classic.

Any insights are greatly appreciated.

Originally Posted by Alabama Stakes (Post 1125487)

I read that limousine liberal fractured a sesssmoid and has been retired. He will get to live a long life on the farm.