12/29: AQU-Carryover Swells
 

Despite finding 4 winners in the P6 suggestion, Thursday was a flop as firster Double Notes upended me in the 4th. Street Sass (19-1) stunned the tough feature, quashing the P4, and hopes of a conso payoff as well. Friday, the P6 pot starts out at $107,000, with a quarter mill likely in the coffers by the 1:52pm post time of R4. It iks another treacherous series of races, but let's give at go...

POST-SCRATCHES/CHANGES...

SELECTIONS -- Aqueduct, 12/30, (R4-9, P6+)


4th: CLM/N2L, F&M-3+, 6f (Pr, P3)

Tricky event off the bat with a group of unlovable 1 for careers..

1. #3 Significant Other 2-1: Exits near miss this level last; Coa sticks WON
2. #10 Bump is Sweet 12-1: Must step it up but intrigues with blinks, Hill
A. #7 La Mer 3-1: Improving; T-J ITM 4 of 5 and Ramon passes on Contessa 2nd
B. #2 Preacher's Tale 8-1: Perrenial place pony from Kelly chased these 2x

$1 Exacta 3-7 $4.95


CLM/N3L, 3+, 6f (Grand Slam, P3)

1. #3 Hard Iron 20-1: Cutback last suited; Dunham gelding ITM 4 of 5 on Inner 4th
2. #5 Southack 9-2: Tough to adore Gyarmati-Nelson grey, but seems a fit
A. #7 Houston Request 7-2: Gullo bay has run poorly only once in career
B. #4 Majestic Karakorum 20-1: Return from break a fiasco, but has back figs


6th: CLM, 3+, 8.5f (P4, DD, Superfecta)

1. #1 Wolf Trap 9-2: Blasi brought Brahms bay in from Oklahoma; 5/1-3-1 trip (NOTE: FTG) 3rd
2. #4 Olivers Success 3-1: Contessa tough off claim; Ramon sees fit to ride 2nd
A. #10 Lord Langfuhr 7-2: obvious threat on best; 50% W's at AQI and 8.5f 4th
B. #2 Sir Tyler T 6-1: Owner gunning for national title; Levine pulls out stops? WON

LONGSHOT/EXOTICS: #3 Sky Diamond 20-1: $450k winner dives to lowest price ever; returns to dirt after skien on Toronto Poly..

$1 Exacta 2-4 $18.40
$1 Trifecta 2-4-1 $81.50
$1 Quad/Superfecta 2-4-1-10 $274.50


7th: NYB-ALW/N1X, 2yo, 1m,70y (P3, Superfecta)

1. #7 Quick and Easy 12-1: Offers value and should get pace to chase
2. #1 Trust Nobody 5-2: Robbins' Bad Boy scratches..
A. #11 SCR
B. #9 Axel Rhodes 8-1: Violette last out winner doesn't have to gun for roses

SCR SUB: #8 City Dealer 5-1


8th: OC/N3X, 3+, 6f (DD)

1. #6 Wild Nature 7-2: Good R Dutrow 4yo spaces his wins and looks ready
2. #2 SCR
3. #5 Scary Bob 6-1: Lopez a front ender; red better off laying back a tad

LONGSHOT/EXOTICS: #7 Elements 12-1: Respect Lafavers tremendously, and though 4yo gelding speed-challenged, does get pace to close into here


CLM/N1Y, 3+, 6f (Superfecta)

Exceedingly perilous way to end P4/6 with silly collection of what-nots..

1. #2 Alarmed 5-1: Can Leah and Nelson win a pair today? (Southack, 5th) 2nd
2. #3 SCR
A. #7 Jet Prospector 9-2: Away 10 months; spotty worktab; has back class 3rd
B. #1a (poe) Multiple Choice 6-1: Last won in '04; Has Ramon if he goes WON

LONGSHOT/EXOTICS: #10 Special Jet 20-1: NEVER ignore Matties under any scenario


<$100 P6 Play:

4: 3-10
5: 3-5-7
6: 1
7: 1e-5-7-8
8: 6
9: 2-3

2x3x1x4x1x2 = 48 x $2 = $96


<$50 P4 Play:

6: 1-2-3-4
7: 1-5-7-9
8: 6
9: 2-7-10

4x4x1x3 = $48


Good luck!!
Steve

That looks pretty hard to hit today.If you hit that for a hundy,then you you are not only the H.J.I.C.,but should also be President of this Country.

"H.J.I.C."... A Scuds Classic..

When I was growing up,my best friend thought he was the H.J.I.C.,but he was highly defective(he was so sure that he was too smart to get caught doing anything.)He is in Prison.He was not the H.J.I.C. What do you call it when somebody thinks they are too smart to get caught? Maybe that is all criminals? Who knows.

P6 is brutal today. We could definitely see another carryover.
My <$600 tickets:
3,8,10/ 1,7/ 5,6,10/ 1a,8/ 1/ 1a
2,7/ 1,7/ 5,6,10/ 1a,8/ 1/ 1a
3,8,10/ 5,9,10/ 5,6,10/ 1a,8/ 1/ 1a
3,8,10/ 1,7/ 2/ 1a,8/ 1/ 1a
3,8,10/ 1,7/ 5,6,10/ 1a,8/ 1/ 2,7,8
2,7/ 5,9,10/ 5,6,10/ 1a,8/ 1/ 1a
2,7/ 1,7/ 2/ 1a,8/ 1/ 1a
3,8,10/ 5,9,10/ 2/ 1a,8/ 1/ 1a

I live and die with Spooky today.

Phil...

Good luck with it today.. Seems like you've got nicely balanced attack.

I'm also intrigued by the 10 in the 4th. Ran credibly in last on the outside on one of the days where you couldn't win from off the pace or off the rail, if I were to make 1 play today that would be it @ 12-1. Needs to improve 5-6 lengths to be competitive for the top slot which I think is very possible with a good trip.

Its nice to see Terranova getting some nice horses these days. Especially in the 2 year old department. Hes one of the good guys.

Early speed bias Gods return....
 

I realize the bolling pin start to the second has influenced things but is this the "Inner Track Early Speed Ruins Any Real Racing...." bias in play again at the big "A". So much for capping the pick six when closers have such an up hill climb again......

The track has played evenly all week and the second winner benefited from being lone speed, as happens on even racetracks, after having been repeatedly hampered by wide trips.

Outofthebox's hoss in the 2nd came out of a possible key race. The 11/19 race 6 earned a huge figure... so much so that i didn't believe it. But subsequently, the winner came back to win an optional claimer, 5th place finished 2nd in a maiden, and now the 9th place finisher (when placed back at 2 turns) wins at 12-1.

for $160
 

3 1 3 1 3,5 4,7
2,7 1 3 1 6 4,7
6 1 1,5,10 1 6 4,7
6 1 3 1 6 4,7,2
3 1 1,5,10 1,3,8 6 4,7
3 1 3 3,8 6 4,7,2
6 1 3 3,8 6 4,7
3 4 3 1 6 4,7
3 10,1,7 3 1 6 4,7,2
3 10,7 1,5,10 1 6 4,7
6 10,7 3 1 6 4,7
3 10,7 3 3,8 6 4,7

Race 4 - Significant Other, La Mer, Bump Is Sweet
Race 5 - Southack, Cool Springs Saint
Race 6 - Wolf Trap, Olivers Success
Race 7 - Dutrow Entry, Quick and Easy, Farenheit Wild
Race 8 - Scary Bob, Wild Nature
Race 9 - Alarmed, Jet Prospector

Uggh...
 

WTF was I doing ignoring the winner? Yeesh..

Wolf Trap at 8-1 right now looks like a huge overlay to me. . .

I hated him too, to be honest. A horse that's running in top level allowance races then dropping to 25k and falling off in form is a big red mark to me...

my six went down the shitt er..coa and some dumb jocks did me in..

Well boys.. It's time hop on board the Philscki Train...

He's halfway home!! Pull now for the 1a-8 with Spooky with Multiple Choice (!!)

Steve, who won the 3rd today, new job and not about to stretch the internet policy yet.

Good luck Phil, Sir Tyler T busted me out.

i think it carrys..imo

That was a super tough horse that just won the 7th. It still rates to be hit but that horse was very hard to have.

I couldn't have had that one.

Seven, Itsaffirmative

i give you two days until the first policy violation!

Even using the generous Pick-3 that just ended the parlay is under $3K. If Spooky Mulder or Dutrow win the next it is almost definitely covered.

i hope so if one of the good guys has it..but damn that was a cc sniper.....if spooky or the 6 dont hit id be really suprised..

Been here 8 days so far, DT is as far as I have gone. They even let you check yahoo email here so I am guessing I can go to Pinnacle and others. Not good as far as employment purposes

How could you?

Here's a brilliant observation.....I think the rail is very good. Look at how that ridiculous Neil Terraciano horse held on for second in the 5th. He was totally through before the eighth pole.

the name says he was a "good prospect"?
i say no carry unless a 15-1 or greater hits in the last OR spooky/dutrow loses.

that 5 got t-boned out of the gate..no wonder he didnt fire late..

Not that he was going to be a factor in the outcome but did you watch Abel Castellano on the 7 horse?

Seriously, he needs to go somewhere else to ride, and soon. He is ridiculous.

everyone ready for the worst stake in recent history..llol sorry 75 o/c

Is there anybody better at getting left on the other speed than CC Lopez? How predictable.

hes the king...unless he wants to win..

He's incredible. The fact that he is allowed to ride shows how little stewards pay attention.

Gotta root for my buddy Mike Lerman.....carryover with the six and eight.

you were right...all the reg horses hit it...

I didnt see the very beginning of the race. Tuned in about 10 seconds into the race and was puzzled to see Spooky by himself and not even going fast.
Should have warned you guys sooner that CC is crazy unlucky for me.

He wins races when I need somebody else for major scores, like the day he got Patriarch Pops home. Needed 4 other horses for fantastic pick 4 scores and he wires the field.

CC Lopez gets left on the " other speed " with alarming frequency. It is proof that stewards have no idea what's going on that he has never been called in.

im rooting for chantal...lol one time baby..or luzzi..