5/4 (CD): 145th Kentucky Derby Day
 

145th KENTUCKY DERBY

1. War of Will (Casse/Gaffalione) 20-1
2. Tax (Gargan/Alvarado) 20-1
3. By My Standards (Calhoun/G. Saez) 20-1
4. Gray Magician (Miller/Van Dyke) 50-1
5. Improbable (Baffert/I. Ortiz) 6-1

6. Vekoma (Weaver/Castellano) 20-1
7. Maximum Security (Ja. Servis/L. Saez) 10-1
8. Tacitus (Mott/J. Ortiz) 10-1
9. Plus Que Parfait (Walsh/R. Santana) 30-1
10. Cutting Humor (Pletcher/Lanerie) 30-1

11. Haikal (McLaughlin/Maragh) 30-1
13. Code of Honor (McGaughey/Velazquez) 15-1
14. Win Win Win (Trombetta/Pimental) 15-1
15. Master Fencer (Tsunoda/Leparoux) 50-1
16. Game Winner (Baffert/Rosario) 5-1

17. Roadster (Baffert/Geroux) 6-1
18. Long Range Toddy (Asmussen/Court) 30-1
19. Spinoff (Pletcher/M. Franco) 30-1
20. Country House (Mott/Prat) 30-1
21. Bodexpress (Delgado/Landeros) 30-1

2019 PACE QUADRANTS WITH JAMES SCULLY

ON

1-Vekoma
2-Maximum Security
3-War of Will
4-Grat Magician
5-Spinoff


NEAR

6-Bodexpress
7-Improbable
8-Tax
9-Roadster
10-By My Standards


STALK

11-Game Winner
12-Long Range Toddy
13-Tacitus
14-Code of Honor
15-Cutting Humor


OFF

16-Win Win Win
17-Plus Que Parfait
18-Haikel
19-Country House
20-Master Fencer

Poor Mark Casse. Setback in the Louisiana Derby and now drawing the 1 post.

Post positions seem fair for most. Time to get to work!!

1-War of Will (War Front), Mark Casse, Tyler Gaffalione, 20-1
2-Tax (Arch), Danny Gargan, Junior Alvarado, 20-1
3-By My Standards (Goldencents), Bret Calhoun, Gabriel Saez, 20-1
4-Gray Magician (Graydar), Peter Miller, Drayden Van Dyke, 50-1
5-Improbable (City Zip), Bob Baffert, Irad Ortiz Jr., 6-1
6-Vekoma (Candy Ride), George Weaver, Javier Castellano, 20-1
7-Maximum Security (New Year's Day), Jason Servis, Luis Saez, 10-1
8-Tacitus (Tapit) , William Mott, Jose Ortiz, 10-1
9-Plus Que Parfait (Point of Entry), Brandan Walsh, Ricardo Santana Jr., 30-1
10-Cutting Humor (First Samurai), Todd Pletcher, Corey Lanerie, 30-1
11-Haikal (Daaher), Kiaran McLaughlin, Rajiv Maragh, 30-1
12-Omaha Beach (War Front), Richard Mandella, Mike Smith, 4-1
13-Code of Honor (Noble Mission), Shug McGaughey, John Velazquez, 15-1
14-Win Win Win (Hat Trick), Michael Trombetta, Julian Pimentel, 15-1
15-Master Fencer (Just a Way), Koichi Tsunoda, 50-1
16-Game Winner (Candy Ride), Bob Baffert, Joel Rosario, 5-1
17-Roadster (Quality Road), Bob Baffert, Florent Geroux, 6-1
18-Long Range Toddy (Take Charge Indy), Steve Asmussen, Jon Court, 30-1
19-Spinoff (Hard Spun), Todd Pletcher, Manny Franco, 30-1
20-Country House (Lookin At Lucky), William Mott, Flavien Prat, 30-1

Interesting that Baffert gets the 17 post for Roadster. Every year it seems that there is some historical precedent or "curse" to overcome like the unraced at 2 curse or the curse of the BC Juvenile winner or the NY Bred curse or some such. Maybe this year's curse is the 17 hole curse which I think is the only post that has not produced a winner. I don't particularly like Roadster or dislike him, but as we all know, it's hazardous to your financial health to leave Baffert or Pletcher or Chad Brown(Thank God he doesn't have 2 or 3 in this race) out of your picks.

Overnight: https://www.equibase.com/premium/eqb...C-CD-20190504D

I know Steve and some others like Win Win Win but him at 15-1 when Vekoma is 20-1 just seems disrespectful.

War of Will has to be sent now, right? I am going to handicap this race with him on the lead, Maximum Security 2nd and Vekoma 3rd. Think the pace will be faster than originally thought.

Is there information outside the PPs that suggests that Improbable is suddenly a speed horse?

Thus far he's only been better than 4th once at the first point of call in any of his races (that was the Los Al Futurity where he was 3rd early after half the field was wiped out on the first turn) and he's never been within 2 lengths of the leader either.

To top it off, he hasn't been in any races with an exceeding fast early pace.

Maybe Bob Baffert has stated he's going to the front?

Agreed. His is likely to be WELL off the pace, and likely in a similar spot as Game Winner....unless some major change is expected.

It's being suggested/anticipated because of how eager he's been in his works.

He was pretty close to a fast pace in the Street Sense. Who else is clearly faster than him? I suspect he’ll be easily in the 5-10 range, maybe higher up as I’m counting War of Will out of the early pace now.

Thought that might be one of the reasons but he's always been a forward work horse so not sure its particularly solid evidence of a change in tactics.

Long Range Toddy (twice) and Omaha Beach both outfooted him early in his Oaklawn starts. Vekoma, Spinoff, War of Will, and Maximum Security have all displayed front-running speed. Arguably even Tax and Gray Magician in specific starts have shown more early speed than Improbable.

In the Street Sense, Improbable was 6th early and despite progressing to two turns after that race, showed less speed in subsequent starts. I guess if you want to say that he prefers Churchill Downs to other tracks to the point that he has more early speed I guess that's a possibility, however remote.

Why is War of Will out of the early pace with the rail draw?

I think there is enough speed to the right of him that he’ll have trouble getting out clean before the rail comes in on him. I also have never really thought he was that fast out of the gate. But maybe I’m wrong.

On Improbable, fair enough. Not sure if he’ll be at the front or not but I like him to be close enough.

He was fairly sharp from the gate in all 3 FG starts although he stumbled slightly in the Lecomte and lost his hind end after a handful of strides in the Louisiana Derby.

At any rate, Mark Casse said he plans to send him straight to the lead in the post-draw quotes. However it should be noted that Tax's trainer (post 2) plans on shifting over to the rail whether War of Will breaks or not.

I would prefer if Improbable showed more early foot, if for no other reason than his riders wouldn't be compelled to make the silly middle moves he's made in his last two.

However, at this stage, I think it's a moot point. Considering his gate antics last out, the bad rides in both his starts this year, and the pummeling he took in the stretch in the Arkansas Derby, my guess is that Improbable has busted a gut and will be a non-factor in the Derby.

Hopefully I'm wrong--because he's talented--but if he does tank hopefully we can at least look forward to a strong 4yo campaign a la Collected in 2017.

I think it’s because he looks like a cross between a Jesus lizard 🦎 and the Pampelmousse when he runs. You should be glad about 20-1. What’s better than your derby hoss being a good price.

The way Roadster popped the gate in his work on 4/20 makes me think Bob has a plan. We'll see how far he can go.

Interesting take on Improbable. I’m pretty high on him heading into the Derby. If anything, it seems to me like he’s got quite a bit of room to improve off of his last two starts. But I’ve liked his overal talent level for a long time so I may be letting that skew my analysis. Same goes for Vekoma. I’ve liked him since the Nashua...so I keep looking at him and thinking he’s got a chance to wire the field...though I know most will probably think I’m crazy for thinking that.

I was thinking it had more to do with casual bettors liking the name Win Win Win.

Vekoma’s Derby day odds wont have any impact on my betting strategy as I’ve got enough on him in Pool 1 & 3 at nearly twice the price. Unless he really gets no respect and floats up toward 30-1 and then maybe I’ll put some more on him.

I will probably put a win bet on Tacitus or Improbable but most of my money will go toward a trifecta bet and possibly some horizontals but still haven’t looked at the rest of the card.

Since you’re covered in the win hole, maybe try to take him second and third in the tri or super for a possible big balloons score.

Good field and the draw was reasonable for most of the contenders but the morning line is terrible. It's at 138% so expect some horses to float up from their original number.

I think that’ll be part of my plan. A couple horses have jumped him for me but I still like his running style and think there’s a good chance he’ll be in the money. And if he wins, I’m going to be happy regardless.

The way Servis is working MS, I’m wondering if Vekoma will get an easy early lead. I don’t see any horse in the race with early speed that can rival Vekoma, other than MS and Omaha Beach.

GARY YOUNG CLOCK NOTES/VIDS: https://www.garyyoungthoroughbreds.c...ucky-derby-145

5-Improbable (City Zip), Bob Baffert, Irad Ortiz Jr., 6-1
16-Game Winner (Candy Ride), Bob Baffert, Joel Rosario, 5-1
17-Roadster (Quality Road), Bob Baffert, Florent Geroux, 6-1

...those are some pretty good odds for Baffert horses.

going to BOX EX 5,6,8,11,16,17


looks like rain on Saturday....

SAT
MAY 4
Rain
66°53°
100%
NNE 10 mph 82%

I like OB at the bottom of the exotics. Decent chance that he regresses a bit and/or some of the other horses peak at the right time. I’m really hoping the track ends up fast for the Derby. Will continue to monitor the weather.

Who are the best "mudders" in this race?

Saw that....thanks and good luck with your selections!

philcski, that 138% (the total of implied probabilities) corresponds to a hypothetical takeout of 28%. The difference between that 28% and CD's 17.5% takeout isn't as big as one might expect, at least as far as putting up ML line odds goes. If you force the original ML numbers up to fit a 17.5% takeout, then OB's 4-1 would have become 9-2. GW's 5-1 becomes (almost) 6-1. A 20-1 becomes 23-1.

So while you're right that the numbers should float up a bit from the ML, the overall effect may not be very big.

I don’t disagree that horse by horse the impact is relatively small... but that’s because it’s a 20 horse field. Let’s take a 3 horse field instead:
Horse A: 4/5
Horse B: 2/1
Horse C: ?

At a proper ML matching takeout, it should be 2/1. At the 138% ML, it’s 1/1, so a huge difference.

My point is on the most important race in the world, where the participants have been known for weeks, shouldn’t we have a pretty tight ML?

Too funny, philski. I just did a search, and we had a very similar discussion about a poor Derby ML almost exactly 11 years ago!

http://www.derbytrail.com/forums/showthread.php?t=22079

Has anything changed in 11 years?! Check it out.

Anyway, I was curious how this year's 138% compared to some of the other CD stakes races this weekend. Here's what I came up with:

Turf Classic 131%
Pat Day Mile 134%
Amer Turf 136%
Alysheba 131%

and, somewhat weirdly, the Ky Oaks, 99.8%

With a 17.5% track take, the apparent odds from the morning line should add up to 121%. So the Ky Oaks ML odds would appear to be even further off than the Derby ML odds.

At any rate, I agree that the ML should be a set of odds that actually add up to what one might see when the betting is done.

Looking forward to grousing about this again 11 years from now!

--Dunbar

Lol great find. What a bunch of angry math nerds we are!

Any thoughts on the undercard races?

I’m thinking about singling Whitmore to start the pick 5. Seems like Mitole will have to handle some serious heat for the first time. Kinda like Social Paranoia in the American. Hoping Global Campaign draws in to the Pat Day. If not, maybe Hog Creek Hustle. I’ve already lost some money on him might as well keep that going. Qurbaan in the Turf Classic.

Any insights are greatly appreciated.

I read that limousine liberal fractured a sesssmoid and has been retired. He will get to live a long life on the farm.

Here’s what I’ll offer. I cannot count how many times Churchill is wildly speed crazy to start the day on derby day and fair as heck by the end of the day.

Rumor that Mike Smith might get on Cutting Humor now?

Man that sucks, Ben Colebrook did a wonderful job with this guy. $1.8 million and 4 graded stakes wins, and wasn't showing signs of slowing down.