How good is Lava Man?
 

lol how did Good Reward end up

Lava Man will get his ass handed to him in teh Classic IMO

That doesn't prove anything. Lava Man has beaten other horses that came back and won huge races in their next start. He beat Borrego by 8 lengths in the Hollywood Gold Cup last year. Borrego came back and won his next two two races. He won the Pacific Classic and then he won the Jockey Club Gold Cup by 7 lengths.

He's really good in Cali, but we'll know a lot more in 60 days.

Yea wasn't lava man in the JCGC and the Pacific Classic when Borrego brought his A game, so i guess that means when he faces top quality horses on their A game he is gonna get his butt kicked:D

In the Pacific Classic, LM went head and head in :45 3/5. He still only lost the race by a length or two. Do you know any horse that can go head and head in :45 3/5 in a 1 1/4 mile race and still win. I don't. In the New York race, he lost by 20 lengths. He obviously didn't fire that day. There was something bothering him.

Still not gonna change my opinon. I watched Good Reward run and I just don't think he would of been within 10 lenghts of Bernadini or Invasor for that matter and their only 3yo's. California horses are weaker than ever this year and by Nov 4th Lava Man will be way past his prime to deal with all the fresh faces.

LM's last 2 races were not as impressive as some of his other races. He may not be as sharp right now as he has been in the past. I'm not saying that he can beat Bernardidni. I would definitely give Benardini the edge right now.

I'm not a big fan of Invasor. By the way, Invasor is a 4 year old.

Lava Man already proved he's a very good horse. Doesn't matter what happens in the classic. None stay in form indefinitely.

Yes, that is exactly correct.

Here we go again. Lava Man has been very good to me at the window and I hope we have the Breeders Cup show down. LAVA MAN is one very good RACE horse. Good Reward ships across the country then runs a bad race and that makes him a second class race horse. I love you guy putting money in the pool.

I thought the thread said "How good is Lava Man" not "how good was Lava Man" I am just sayin he is gonna get his ass handed to him in the Classic. Horses eating habits change due to the weather and this is about the same time he took dump:D last year.

Lava Man is a very talented horse. He must contend with shipping for the Breeders' Cup, but that does not mean he is not a very fine racehorse. I think he is undoubtedly the best older horse in training. He is a grandson of the great Seattle Slew; as is Bernardini. It is the year of Slew.:)

You really can't use GR's race this weekend as a basis to prove anything. GR was coming off a long ship out and back and a lifetime top on the dirt. If ever a horse looked like a bounce it was him.
I still don't think Lava has beaten anything good this year, but we will know soon enough whether he can handle leaving California.

O the West coast tracks, great......Outside of California, very average....well, he'd probably love Keeneland, but he'll be an underlay at Churchill in the BC Classic...IMO

Joel I agree with you completely but just wanted to mention that using a horse like Good Reward and his subsequent effort as a basis of "proof" that Lava Man isn't any good is faulty in nature.
Good Reward ran a lifetime effort last out and when you use a lifetime effort by a 5 year old horse who then bounces(duh) in his next start you really aren't proving anything.

you had to find way to rain on my parade

He and Bernardini each will have one last prep before the BC Classic. I think that Bernardini will win his race easily. I don't know about Lava Man. He is going to have to run against The Tin Man on the grass at Santa Anita. He may not win that race. But let's say that he does win the race. I would much rather bet him in the BC Classic than Bernardini. If they were equal odds, I would take Bernardini but they won't be equal odds. Bernardini will be about 3-5 and Lava Man will be about 5-1. In that situation, LM would be a much better bet than Bernardini. Bernardini will have never faced a horse like LM. He may be able to beat LM but I certainly would not take 3-5.

I will be stunned if Lava Man hits the board in the BC Classic.

What are you thinking? How many races has the horse won in a row? He's the best horse by far on the west coast right now. When you have a horse that is absolutely dominant on the west coast, they are almost always competitive with the east coast horses. Not only have some of his races been visually impressive, but look at the numbers he has run over the last 1 1/2 years. I'm not big on speed figures but when a horse looks like a great horse and the numbers confirm it, there's really no reason to doubt the horse. The horse has run some incredible races. His last two races weren't that great but at least he's still winning. Barbaro's win in the Florida derby was not particularly impressive but I still knew it would be a mistake to underestimate him becuase he kept winning.

If you would be stunned to see LM hit the board, then you must have been stunned by Stevie Wonderboy, The Tin Man, and most horses that have gone back east and won. LM has certainly been as impressive as any of the west coast horses that have been able to win back east.

I'm not saying the horse will win. I don't know for sure that he can run as well on the road. Not only that, he's had a lot of races this year. Even if he does run his best, he may not be as good as Bernardini. It's hard to tell.

I think running outside of California is a major if for this horse. I never said he hasn't run a number of terrific races ( my qualifications for using the word " great " differ significantly from many others ) though I'm not sure how many of his races I would term " incredible " , but my off-hand guess would be none.

I don't know California racing very well, so I don't really know the trainers' reputations, though I seem to remember Doug O'Neill ( he is Lava Man's trainer, right? ) getting into some trouble in the not so recent past. Perhaps that trouble is completely unrelated to Lava Man's ascent from claimer to Horse of the Year candidate, I certainly hope so, but I know that many NY cheaters don't enjoy the same success on the road that they do at home ( unless they go to that Den of Iniquity known as Delaware Park where even Wyatt Earp would be defenseless ).

I actually like Lava Man, he has danced many dances, and danced them well. He won on the turf and dirt. He's a throw back. I just think Bernardini is superior to him and his on the pace running style may work against him in a way that it hasn't in California.

I'm not so sure the track surface will do Lava Man in. I'd be more concerned about the lack of race-day Bute.

O the West coast tracks, great......Outside of California, very average

Okay, well please tell me how the East Coast horses are when they ship out West? Or are the East Coast horses too good to ship out west? Its the East Coast bias thing going on again on this board. It will never change.

When Saint Liam ran a dud out in California, he was excuse for it, it was blamed on the track surface. But when Lava Man was up the track in the Jockey Club Gold Cup last year, he is deemed an inferior and overrated west coast horse. Regardless of what he has done this year, all anyone ever brings up is that Belmont race. Oh by the way Flower Alley was terrible in that race too. But he gets excused for it because of where he is based and who his trainer is. Blah! I dont wanna hear this jibberish anymore.

And I didn't bring it up either Gander...

It will always be this way. Now Y'all know I am a FL girl so I really don't have a bias, I like a horse for the sake of the horse.

I am now rooting for Lava Man to do well just to disprove the doubters, but I have a feeling even if he loses by a nose, it will still be "He can't run outside of Cali"

I think your questions about O'Neil are legitimate. I think that the horse does need to prove that he can win away from California. I would understand if you said you still aren't convinced that the horse can win away from California. I wouldn't have a problem with that. But I just think it is crazy to for someone to say they would be "shocked if the horse hit the board." As I said, west coast horses have a history of doing well when they go back east. Even a lot of our mediocre horses such as Bob and John go back east and win. And when we have a dominant horse out here, they can practically always compete with east coast horses. LM is one of the most dominant horses we've had in 20 years.

Some of his races last year were unbelievable. He beat some good horses by about 8 lengths in the Hollywood Gold Cup and he ran a huge number. I think his Beyer was around 116. If you check his sheet numbers in some of those races, I'm sure they were huge.

It certainly wouldn't be a shock for him to hit the board. Aside from Bernardini, there aren't any great dirt horses back there.

I am mostly interested in trying to find the best horse. I have seen plenty of West Coast horses win in NY over the years and East Coast horses win in California. The good ones, in the right spots, have done quite well. However, the ones who get good in NY from suspicious operations haven't necessarily duplicated that form elsewhere and the same could be said for California horses. This is the biggest problem I have.

We've gone over this a million times. California has the same bute rules as every other state. It has to be administered the day before the race. Some people think that since there is a little "B" in the Racing Form that it means that California horses get bute on race day. That is not the case.

It would be a great time for a jockey change. Nakatani has only won about 7 in a row in him.

Saint Liam had run at tracks all over the country and only failed once in California in his first try at ten furlongs. Lava Man has only won in CA and failed miserably all three times he left. There is a huge difference there.

That's a legitimate question. I don't blame you for being suspicious about O'Neil. But there's a difference between saying you're not sold on the horse yet because of some of these questions and saying you would be "stunned to see the horse hit the board."

Those are totally different cases. Both of those horse ran into perfect pace scenarios and any decent handicappers could have seen them coming from a mile away. I made some money on both of those horses but will not be backing Lava Man in the Classic.

First of all, I don't understand this supposed " west coast/east coast bias " or even " west coast/east coast horse " thing. It never really occured to me until seeing it on Internet message boards. I have even read mindless related stupidity on this topic wherein people suggest the Beyer figs have some sort of bias towards one coast ( if people only knew Beyer they would really laugh at how silly THAT is ). I don't care where they run, a good horse is a good horse, and if I felt it was a level playing field I would bet a horse from Jupiter if I thought he or she was the fastest horse in a positive situation in any given race. Bob and John? Of course he was the logical horse on paper ( OK, I bet Jazil, but the winning result was far and away my biggest exacta ). Simply put I don't identify horses by region....I do it by ability.

My problem with shippers is when I consider the connections suspicious ( which these days, for me, includes just about everybody ) then, at the very least, I need to see them achieve success out of town ( and not into known opium dens ). Lava Man's JCGC last year hardly instills any confidence. Obviously it was probably at least some sort of aberation but at the reasonably short price Lava Man will be in the Classic I am more than ready to take a stand against him.

Plus, as I also said before, his running style does not look to be advantageous for the likely race dynamics of the year's Classic. Since I consider Bernardini very much the horse to beat, and I apparently have a higher opinion of Invasor ( for better or worse ) than you do, I don't see how Lava Man fights off either or both of them and still has anything left in the tank for the remaining horses. I take stands.....and I loathe Lava Man's chances in this year's Classic AS THE RACE STANDS NOW.

As I said, I'm not saying that LM will win the Classic. I'm not saying that people should bet on him. I'm not even saying that I will necessarily bet him. I'm just saying that it is crazy to say he has no chance. He's one of the best horses we've had out here in years. He may not be as good on the road. I really don't know. But I wouldn't say that he can't win on the road based off one race in New york and one in Japan.

I agree with you there but why does everyone so conveniently forget about his Sunshine Millions at Gulfstream where he tanked as well?

Racing is supposed to be about taking a stand. No " I don't like his chances BUT " opinions do anybody any good. Like a horse....hate a horse...be right....be wrong....but have a f'n position!

That was way before he got good. He didn't get really good until late Spring/early summer last year. I was actually totally surprised by his huge win in the Californian. He had never run like that before.

By the way, I believe he did ship to Northern California and win. That is actually just as long of a trip as a trip back east because it is by van. It's about an 8 hour trip.

His Beyers for the three races prior to the Sunshine Millions were 107/107/101 and he'd just finished second to RHT by half a length in the G1 Malibu in his previous effort. Running an 83 Beyer and losing by 14.5 lengths to Musique Toujours the next race is more than a little suspicious in light of his efforts in the JCGC and the Japan Cup Dirt.

I don't agree with that. You can take a position without overstating it.

I will take a stand in the JCGC. My stand is that I will be extremely surprised if Invasor beats Bernardini. That's not exactly a bold stand. Bernardini will probably go off as the odds-on favorite. I think Bernardini will go off at 3-5 or 4-5.