Mark it down: Scat Daddy WILL win the BC Juvenile
 

....here is the start of controversial thread #3 this week, as I'm sure many will disagree with their OPINIONS - which we all have.

Scat Daddy had yet another poor trip in the Hopeful, first going down to his knees after stubling significantly out of the gate and then having to recover and rush up into contention through a fast first quarter....then, Johnny V. makes another middle move up the inside through a VERY stout half mile in 44 and change, but the horse - being still green as all inexperienced 2-year-olds - flicked his ears up ad backed himself out of the tight spot created on the rail and Zito's horse in the two-path....you could clearly see the horse suck himself out of that situation out of intimidation, which simply comes from not doing it very often as a result of being a juvenile....

Then, he falls a good 3-4 lengths back, losing ground now, as they pick it up rounding the far turn.....Unbridled Express, who got a dream trip stalking on the outside, moved up under Prado and I loved the way Scat Daddy responed under a drive when losing groundads out-paced the talented Unbridled Express to the 3-wide position....Now, Scat Daddy - who had stumbled, been used in two or three different spots down the backstretch, and lost significant ground - had to rally between two very nice babies in Pegasus Wind and Unbridled Express,ad he was clearly moving better than the two when legthening his pretty stride - until Pegasus Wind, who is not a small horse by any means, came in bumped Scat Daddy VERY hard, knocking him off stride and pushing him out a path....Yet, Scat Daddy dug in and still out-finished that pair with noticably better strides and ability...

Obviously, the damage had been done and stablemate Circular Quay, who enjoyed a dream trip under Gomez, mowed them all down late and won going away after saving all the ground and letting 3 nice colts duel themselves into submission through a grueling pace...

To me, while everybody will look at the closing final quarter-mile of Circular Quay as the most impressive run of the race, I believe that Scat Daddy's middle quarter-mile was the most impressive..I haven't calculated it yet, but go back and watch the replay....

Circular Quay may be a better one-turn horse than Scat Daddy, but I really like what I see out of Scat Daddy in many departments and really believe he might have won this with a better trip and will beat his stablemate around two-turns....I know that Circular Quay is a Thunder Gulch, but I still have reservations about whether or not he'll display the same sort of closing lick around two-turns....you rarely see it with horses who close like he does around one turn....that kick gets really flat around two turns....just my opinion...we will see...I'll tell you this, his mother, who I was a big fan of (Circle of Life), was better around one-turn and was better at two than three....food for thought...

Scat Daddy is bred deeper on the bottomside for stamina and I really think he proves best of this generation with better luck and a bit more distance....I'd like to see him relax in the clear for once and make that ONE good run for a 1/2 to 3/8s of a mile like Circular Quay did - instead of being put in tough situations for 2-year-olds where he has to do to many things to win the race....

Won't take anything away from CQ though.he's a nice colt, obviously...just think Scat Daddy is better and I bet if you asked Pletcher and actually got a square answer out of him he would probably echo the same thoughts...I've seen all 4 of these colts that I mentioned train at CD this spring and summer and they are all nice horses......Bernie's horse is talented but he goes awful in his left/front...wings it out really badly, but man what a nice-looking horse....he is an Unbridled's Song though so there's a great chance that soundness will be an issue at some point....I think Lukas' horse will be a nice sprinter/miler type down the road...he reminds e of this year's Henny Hughes (although probably not near as good as Henny of course)...

The great thing about Scat Daddy is that he may also lose the Champagne to Circular Quay because iit is a ONE-TURN mile-and-a-sixteenth, which will only juice his price for the BC Juvy when it counts...

Cue the critiscism in 5....4....3....2...:D

you are much more rational on the radio than on this site. the truth is that the top 3 horses all ran great races and any of them can beat the other if the race is run a certain way. the problem is you are discounting all the other 2yr olds out there. right now circular quay is the top 2yr old but they are 2yr olds and can progress quickly. i would not say any horse in that race today is any more impressive than principle secret or even tiz wonderful. circular quay deserves to be the front runner though. i also would like to see soaring by, city snitch, out of gwedda and the frankel winner at belmont, before saying any 2yr old is going to win the bcj.

If E Z Warrior makes it back,he will take the Champagne.Haven't heard about him lately(since they shut him down because of a minor shin thing.)

good analysis. I agree that Scat Daddy ran a great race considering all the trouble he found. CQ also broke very poorly spotting the field 10-15 lengths (whether by design or not). I think the biggest difference between CQ and Scat Daddy is that CQ has already appeared to have figured this racing thing out. SD is still learning. Of course, it's impossible to predict how each one will mature, but SD should at least close the gap a little with more experience.
In the end, I still think CQ is better and will be down the road.. in my opinion.
Either way, I hope we see these two hook up several more times in the future. CQ 4 the BCJ!!!

It is just my opinion and opinions are what forums like this are all about....If everybody offered "lite-bodied" or hollow opinions than what would be the fun in that?...I like to make bold predictios because i have a knack for them....Plus, it is fun and the best dynamic to chat forums such as this one...:)

No criticisms, these are opinions, it's hard to find fault in a horse that keeps winning, so until he loses, I don't care what excuses the others had, they lost and he's never lost...

See, I don't respect any of the West coast 2-yaer-olds....I just don't...I really like the filly Jump On In who is in the Del Mar Debutante later today, but that is the only West coast babies I have seen that I like so far..

I cannot argue that point....very true...:)

Nonetheless a good race analysis Cunningham. I likes. Even if I have not seen the race which I will now attempt to do.

i beg to differ. scat daddy broke fine, while CQ completely missed the break and spotted the field 15 lengths. scat daddy did give a great effort by keeping up on the front end of the fractions, he was beaten easily by CQ. he'll be better in the champagne b/c its one turn as it seems he's more of a sprinting type and two turns will be a disadvantage to him, unless on turf-where he might be best. wasnt he all out to be Tuflesburg at 6f?

jump on in was put down the other day....

hold on...looking it up to make sure. if it wasn't her, it was a damned similar name!

:eek: then who is it in the eighth at Del Mar today?

She was?!! Oh lord, I haven't read anything about this, even in today's Del Mar stable notes............. maybe it's another filly? I think there is a filly named Jump on It.........

It has to be another horse, Jump On In races today and is not scratched.

dunno, looking on drf...i remember seeing the article and thinking i should put it up here...but i didn't.

That's what I thought, but my heart dropped into my stomach for a second. Whew........

Yeah mine too, i'm really anxious to see how she does today.

yeah, gotta be...similar name, it was an article under a main one on drf...damn...

sorry guys if i had ya worried...

no problem. i also remember a story about a 2yo that had to be put down, but i also don't remember the name.

This Just In is probably the filly you are thinking about. Probably confusing the on and in.

broke down in a work? probably her, sorry again folks...that's why i tried to hurry and edit that first post i put up, horse names sometimes are so similar...

yeah, that's her...

Maybe different horse. This filly broke down at Saratoga. I think you are right. There was a nice one that broke down in a work. I don't know the name though.

That will be a vet scratch for sure.:cool:

yeah, saratoga...that's why i went right back after i put that i thought she was euthanized, since they said del mar...figured it had to be two different horses after that.

so, back to the original point of the thread...

anyone give circular quay extra points for the bcj since he already has a race at churchill?

OK CQ took advantage of a contentious pace. Heck yes when a horse comes from that far off the pace it is impressive, but he took advantage of horses that were cooked. Scat Daddy ran a much tougher race.

My take. With a small field it is pretty straightforward. Scat Daddy is also still very goofy. He does not run efficiently. Especially his race prior to this one with that impressive comeback. Scat Daddy reminds me of a big teenager with lots to learn.

Thanks to pg5 for the replay. Cali does not have it.

A) Scat Daddy will probably never see the turf in his racing career

B) He will enjoy two-turns based on his running style and looks and family, but not sure HOW far he'll go...may not like the true Classic distances...

c) You must not have seen the race if you think he broke wel....go watch it again from the head-on view...he almost goes to his knees and loses a ton of ground for a horse that like to be relatively close early...he had to be rushed up.....the difference between he and CQ is that CQ is a devoid speed type and will always fall out of it when they go 22 and 44 in front of him....

D) You clearly aren't aware of greeness in 2-year-olds - or like the Hopefulk you must have missed the Sanford and not seen the race against Tueflesburg - because Scat Daddy had no business even getting up that day with the trip he got but did o his raw talent alone....not like they ran slow either....

Gee, ya think so? :)

It was one of the Sheik's nice colts for McLaughlin that was considering the Hopeful before breaking down...can't remember the name though....some Arab name...I think it was an Elusive Quality....

a) he'll never see the turf b/c you say so? didnt know you were part of the pletcher camp, too
b) he'll like two turns but you're not sure how far he'll go;that doesnt make sense since most 2 turn races are distance races. wouldnt the one turn 8.5F champagne be right up his alley like it was for henny hughes and 1st samurai
c)i saw the race, he didnt break horribly like you make it out to be; if they cant get him to successfully rate it wont matter if he breaks well or not. funny, i think the difference btwn scat daddy and CQ is that CQ is undefeated and beat scat daddy by 5 lengths
d) thank you for telling me what i do and dont know b/c tuflesburg was crawling home and worn out after 5F. I did see johnny v saying "screw it scat daddy, get on my shoulders b/c i'm going to carry you across the wire"

El Rajjas was his name

Actually it was Rajjaas .

yeah, i knew about the colt. but this just in was the filly they put down the other day.

Yep...:D :D :D ...El is a spanish article,...nothing to do with the Arab language...LMAO :D

Scat Daddy will be effective with the PACE SCENARIO of two turn racing...do you not know that there is a difference? Additionally, I believe that he'll be at his best at around 1 1/16 miles to 1 1/8 miles - which ARE NOT CLASSIC DISTANCES the last time I and anyone else with a brain have checked....Here's an example for the morons: 1 1/4 miles in Derby, 1 3/16 miles in Preakness and 1 1/2 miles in Belmont. Got it?

And no, he won't see the grass...mark it down....don't have to be a part of that camp to know that...just need to have an understanding for racing ;)