St. Trinians out till at least November
 

The Clement Hirsch isn't a handicap either. The show bettors are in for another laughably easy 5% return.

I know Grade 1 races are supposed to be events that are taken seriously and all ... but Del Mar really should invite these girls to take on Zenyatta in the Hirsch ...



Put 13 of them in the starting gate to make a field of 14. Have Zenyatta race 'for purse only' .. and allow for betting on the 13 San Diego Charger cheerleaders racing against her...with all the profits from the takeout going to breast cancer research. Just have the girls race for the first 1/16th of a mile - and they'll be out of Zenyatta's way when she comes across the wire to complete the 8.5 furlong distance.

How is this any worse of an idea than letting horses like Dance To My Tune and Taptam earn 2nd place finishes in very important Grade 1 stakes races?

It will be an event. It will be a charity. People will get to see Zenyatta. They will get to gamble on hot NFL cheerleaders. Boobies will be bouncing. Zenyatta will stay perfect. Everyone wins.

Z is unlikely to run in the Hirsch because of issues with the DM surface.

This news sucks! I thought she had a chance in this years Distaff!!! One of the better horses running this year, at least out here in So. Cal.

Who will the Charger girls be left to run against?

Really? St Trinians has never run on dirt. How much chance could you have thought she had?

I wanted to see her try and if she could carry her form on dirt what a horse she would be. But I would have liked the betting odds on her. She wouldn't have been so high as she hadn't ran on dirt so I'd have taken a shot with her maybe...

Mitchell got all he could out of her. What a guy.

His daughter will sing to her on occasion. If that won't make her want to run again nothing will.

I wish she'd sing for me ....

Stick with the crutch girl Doug

amen brother:{>:

The only way you would have a shot with her is if you could turn into a mirror.

Quote:
Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS
St Trinians posseses a huge match-up problem for Zenyatta style wise .. if she gets the seperation she figures to get - and the weight spread is what it should be - Zenyatta has very little chance.

She got good separation in the stretch, and she got weight. Z ran down a horse who was drawing away from the rest of the field.That's exactly what you didn't think she could do, but she did do it. That's exactly the situation where many good horses get beat. Told ya this S.T. got this stupid action that would get her hurt once again. Says she's body sore. That's what happens when you twirling rope while trying to hold off the best mare in the country. Same stupid action gunna get the East Coast horse beat in the Classic. I don't care how much "GO" Pletcher pack that wagon with. Going 10F, he gun start twirling rope with his front left. That's what he does. Smith n' Gomez will be on 10f horses.

Yes - that quote was from several months ago - not right before the race.

I said that a few months before St. Trinians tanked in the SA Handicap and went to the sidelines for 3 months.

In her meeting with Zenyatta .. she was making her first start off of a 3 month layoff, her last race was well off form, and she lost a shoe on the far turn... and yet she almost won anyway.

Plus, Martin Garcia was on her instead of Joel Rosario the day she faced Zenyatta ... take a look at Rosario's career stats riding route races sometime and tell me that wasn't a negative rider switch.

I didn't see anything wrong with Martin Garcia's ride on St. Trinians this day, 99% of the time this is a winning ride, the 1% was Zenyatta was the horse she was trying to stave off, instead of stalling, she put it into another gear and nailed her on the wire. Whether Rosario is a better rider than Garcia at routes is immaterial in this case, the horse couldn't have been ridden better this day.

Couldn't have been ridden any better? You've lost your mind.

Here's a recap of Garcia's supposed perfect ride of St. Trinians:

* The Start:



St. Trinians breaks into the side of the gate and stumbles. Garcia must also steady her back off of heels. Well hey, lets be positive, at least he didn't fall off.

Grade D-


* Early position:



St. Trinians is making her first start off of a 3 month layoff - and horses doing that typically are fresh and show more speed than normal - but don't always finish as well as normal.

However, about 12 jumps in ... St. Trinians is still behind Zenyatta. Separation is the name of the game against Zenyatta.

The thing I've always said about Zenyatta is that when she gets even she's leaving - and when she's ahead, you're dead. Garcia is forced to test my theory after his poor start.


* The 1st turn:



This is where I ask myself "what in the hell is this moron doing?"

The old rule of thumb I've always used is that a horse travels one additional length for each path wider they race on the turn. However, studying Trackus, it seems to indicate that it's actually a length and half or so for each path of ground.

Garcia decides to take St. Trinians (who broke from the 2 hole and could have saved ground) wider than even Zenyatta on the first turn. Zenyatta's a big lumbering horse and doesn't want to get stopped when she makes her move ... why Garcia thinks he needs to be wider than her on the turn is beyond me.

Only two reasons make any sense. 1.) St. Trinians might have been pulling a bit from being so fresh off of the layoff - and horses tend to relax better when they are out in the clear than when they are on the fence.

2.) He was afraid that Victor Espinoza would keep him locked on Zardana. Zardana and Zenyatta are both trained by Shirreffs, and you saw what Espinoza did to Lookin at Lucky in the SA Derby when Gomez tried to come inside of him. He might have put himself in Espinoza's trap if he saved the ground and tried to steal it up the rail .. but it's a risk you have to take.

If you don't think saving ground in a 2-turn route is important. Go watch where Awesome Gem is on the turns and go watch where Rail Trip is on the turns in the Hollywood Gold Cup.


* The Far Turn:



Because Garcia was worried that Espinoza was trying to trap him or that his horse would get rank running against the rail so early ... he was forced to race 4-to-5 paths wide the entrie way around the whole far turn.

Meanwhile, Zenyatta was poised to strike in behind them. She didn't start to tip out till about 2/3rds of the way around the far turn which allowed her to save a little ground on St. Trinians all while not having her momentum stopped. Her run would be a clear one and this is the point in the race where St. Trinians reportedly loses a shoe.

* The Finish Line



St. Trinians so called "perfect ride" concludes with her losing by a head.

In case anyone is wondering - Garcia's career win percentage in route races is 13% and his ROI is $1.61 - which means you lose 19.5% per dollar bet - which is more than the win takeout.

Fellow young rider Joel Rosario - who got the boot on St. Trinians - has ridden 1,820 route races in his career, he won 17% of them and his ROI is an absolutely mind-boggling $2.07. Which is a 3.5% profit per dollar bet. In synthetic route races - Rosario is 19% with a $2.31 ROI lifetime. An ROI that is borderline impossible for a jockey to achieve from over 700 career rides.

Alot of work when a simple answer of you asserting that if Rosario rode, St. Trinians she would have beaten Zenyatta. I think this is what you are trying to infer. Sorry you are losing a grasp on reality when Zenyatta is concerned. If that was as bad ride as you assert, there are many more to choose from rather than nitpicking a winning ride as this one was or atleast 99% of the time it is.

DOUG IS A LEGEND, ITS STUFF LIKE THIS THAT DREAMS ARE MADE OF.
My dream of teaming up with Doug for the best horse racing figures ever is getting close to being a reality. JoeynDoug Sheets.

The work shows it all though, there is really not debate here.

I'll say this, no one can post pictures or quizzes like him, I really appreciate the effort on his part, but I seriously doubt anyone in the biz would read his post and still blame Garcia for losing the race to Zenyatta, or atleast with a straight face.

A replay would be far better, don't you think?

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=K-fJpTGaPH8

A better view, now if Doug wants to assert that St. Trinians would have been better off to follow 60-1 shot Will O Way or the inferior Zardana to save ground AND lose 1st run (a point he made was to her advantage) on Zenyatta. Then I concede, he has a point, however no sane handicapper watching the replay would advise a jockey to follow a 60-1 shot or a fading Zardana. The fact is St Trinians was in a position to win, a tribute to her Jockey and was full of run at the wire running 11 and change the final 1/8th, to blame the rider is simply silly and a grasp IMO while not recognizing a horse that was able to outfinish her.

You'd be WRONG. I didn't bother reading the specific of DrugS' argument, I'm sure it's full of TRIVIALITIES, in other words, THE OBVIOUS. And it probably took him a month to see what others did after a single viewing of the race. However, that GARCIA moved too soon is OBVIOUS (anything else is fluff). Not only did he lose the race by doing so but he also put his horse under undue/excessive pressure and, effectively, broke her down (for the time being).

Then again, you still think that Interactif is better than PoP.:rolleyes:

FTFY

Good one Sighty!

You need to be locked in a room and forced to watch ten thousand races.

The final margin was just a head. You make it sound like Zenyatta won by 3

Something as simple as a clean break by St. Trinians would have made the difference. Saving some ground into the 1st turn would have also helped.

Rosario's ROI is what it is because he rarely loses when he's on the horse who runs the better race .. and he steals a few wins here and there in races where he's not on the best horse.

Garcia is just your average top circuit jockey. Other than the very poor start and going 5 wide on the 1st turn while starting from post 2 - and getting hung up 4 to 5 wide the entire way around the far turn ... he did absolutely nothing wrong. Picture perfect.

A horse running the final 1/8th under in 11 and change is one that was subjected to a premature move? Maybe horses are not as good as they once were, but don't quit your day job and sell cars. That one is a reach of major proportions.

Going 'maybe' 4 wide into the 1st turn did not cost her the race, you cannot be saying this with a straight face, furthermore didn't Zenyatta break a little tardy last year in the BC Classic? One is used as an excuse, the other is not. Be consistent atleast, there are some that actually hang on every word you say here afterall.

how would a tardy break at all hinder zenyatta? i think the break would have differing affects when you consider a horses running style. it never seemed to hurt evening attire, who could never be accused of being a good breaker. but a bad break was considered to have been very costly to war emblem in the belmont, just to use as an example.

Ask I DrugS, it seemed to hinder a closer like St. Trinians. I know both are not identical as Z is a deeper closer, but it isn't like ST is the reincarnation of War Emblem either.

Zenyatta is a big lumbering closer who often breaks a bit tardy. That's different from breaking into the side of the gate and stumbling.

As for the difference between racing on the rail through the 1st turn and racing 4 wide the entire way around the 1st turn .... here's the Hollywood Gold Cup. Watch where Awesome Gem is in the first turn - and watch where Rail Trip.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3B1DnIXRok4

But hey, the Hollywood Gold Cup only proves that Bejarano rode a perfect race on Rail Trip... after all, he had him "in a position to win" and that is "a tribute to the jockey"

i know she's no war emblem, i said it was an example. i guess i will have to go elsewhere for help, you seem to be more interested in polemics than instruction anyway.

Within the dynamics of the race, it was a PREMATURE move. Picking Summer Bird can carry you just so far, Ace. Do you ever stop and think how stupid some of the **** you write is for ANYONE with half a clue when it comes to tripping?

Obviously not.

Thanks for pointing out the banal. But you got this all wrong. If you go to CJ's site, you'll see that Rail Trip was very very vulnerable in the Gold Cup. He 'figured' to lose.:rolleyes:

ha ha ha

St. Trinians has very good natural speed ... she was pressing the pace from about a neck back going 7fs in an alw sprint she won by 7 lengths in her 2nd start in America.

That's why she was supposed to be a big match-up problem for Zenyatta ... because, unlike a Life Is Sweet .. she could get early separation and a nice big cushion on Zenyatta .. and unlike an Anabaa's Creation, she can finish hard.

Rail Trip is overrated, I stated that many times here. Comparing his style to St. Trinians is bad, you know well they have opposing styles, regardless he still should be good enough to beat Awesome Gem, a horse that clunked up in last year's classic mind you. The problem here is if Garcia took a gamble and went towards the rail, and let's say the trip parted like the red sea for him, how is she going to outrun Zenyatta the final 1/8th to 1/4 mile, just how many horses have done that in their career, the only chance she had was to get the jump on her, pinch a break and hold her off. That's what she did and against another horse, 99/100 she would have won the race.

Eristic would suffice, I hate big words.

Missing the point award.