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-   -   Taking nothing away from Summer, but QR ran huge (http://www.derbytrail.com/forums/showthread.php?t=32079)

MisterB 10-04-2009 09:35 AM

Taking nothing away from Summer, but QR ran huge
 
When talking next year, but him in the mix too!!!!!!!! Fast track might make the difference, with the added races an no more set backs

freddymo 10-04-2009 09:37 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by MisterB
When talking next year, but him in the mix too!!!!!!!! Fast track might make the difference, with the added races an no more set backs

He has down enough also. Perfect candidate for the breeding shed. Showed brilliance early. Breeders love this type big BSF and just enough Blk type to make him legit.

cmorioles 10-04-2009 10:40 AM

Summer Bird ran much, much better in my opinion. Quality Road should have had plenty left at the end given the slow pace.

TropicalStorm 10-04-2009 11:16 AM

Quality Road could be tough in the BC Mile. I don't know synthetics well enough but european milers stretch out to 10f in the classic last year so maybe Quality Road could get the 10f.

I think Quality Road is like Rachel Alexandra. They can run past 9f but they really do not want to.

Kasept 10-04-2009 11:20 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by cmorioles
Summer Bird ran much, much better in my opinion. Quality Road should have had plenty left at the end given the slow pace.

I agree CJ... Not to mention the serious race-riding tactics Velasquez threw into the deal being inside and floating Summer Bird and Desormeaux well wide off the turn. And Summer Bird was not fully extended down the stretch at all.


As a PS.. I thought Quality ran very well and further distinguished himself as honest...

freddymo 10-04-2009 11:27 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Kasept
I agree CJ... Not to mention the serious race-riding tactics Velasquez threw into the deal being inside and floating Summer Bird and Desormeaux well wide off the turn. And Summer Bird was not fully extended down the stretch at all.

Neither are so special its a lousy crop. Mine that Bird won the friggin Derby. Summer Bird appears ok in what looks like another suspect group. I think both the other gals would give them heck not to mention Rachel.

Travis Stone 10-04-2009 11:30 AM

I don't know... I think Quality Road ran a big race. Yeah, the pace was slow, but the surface is fishy with that much rain so it's hard to determine. Plus, Quality Road broke outside which costs him a bit of ground, plus he was rank. Sure, he floated Summer Bird out, but Quality Road was only one path inside him...

That said, what impressed me was how Summer Bird took the race to Quality Road with four furlongs to go and Quality Road did not give up until past mid-stretch. Still, Summer Bird did not blow him away late like you would expect, the margin was less than one length. Kent whipped 'Bird enough times down the stretch - I think he was all-in.

Plus, Summer Bird relishes both the off-track and longer distances, so for Quality Road to stay in it for that long to me is a pretty big effort especially considering 10f is not up his wheelhouse. Take nothing away from Summer Bird because he's a really cool horse who is fast and talented, but Quality Road's effort was strong too.

CSC 10-04-2009 11:36 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Travis Stone
I don't know... I think Quality Road ran a big race. Yeah, the pace was slow, but the surface is fishy with that much rain so it's hard to determine. Plus, Quality Road broke outside which costs him a bit of ground, plus he was rank. Sure, he floated Summer Bird out, but Quality Road was only one path inside him...

That said, what impressed me was how Summer Bird took the race to Quality Road with four furlongs to go and Quality Road did not give up until past mid-stretch. Still, Summer Bird did not blow him away late like you would expect, the margin was less than one length. Kent whipped 'Bird enough times down the stretch - I think he was all-in.

Plus, Summer Bird relishes both the off-track and longer distances, so for Quality Road to stay in it for that long to me is a pretty big effort especially considering 10f is not up his wheelhouse. Take nothing away from Summer Bird because he's a really cool horse who is fast and talented, but Quality Road's effort was strong too.

QR ran a nice race but Summer Bird ran a nicer one in my opinion, he always looked like a winner going by when he wanted to, I think he had more to give if needed, the margin doesn't reflect the ease of the win, he was just idling when he hit the lead and I think the tap down the stretch was just a reminder tap by Kent. He certainly was not all out to win yesterday.

parsixfarms 10-04-2009 11:58 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by freddymo
Neither are so special its a lousy crop. Mine that Bird won the friggin Derby. Summer Bird appears ok in what looks like another suspect group. I think both the other gals would give them heck not to mention Rachel.

Every time you make statements like these you undermine your argument that Rachel is a special horse. She beat Mine That Bird by a length and Macho Again by a head. If they are "lousy" horses, it's hard to argue that she's "special."

Cannon Shell 10-04-2009 12:03 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by parsixfarms
Every time you make statements like these you undermine your argument that Rachel is a special horse. She beat Mine That Bird by a length and Macho Again by a head. If they are "lousy" horses, it's hard to argue that she's "special."

She is a three year old filly so she gets and deserves a pass. Next year she wont and I almost guarantee that Jackson will duck and dive all year.

freddymo 10-04-2009 12:07 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by parsixfarms
Every time you make statements like these you undermine your argument that Rachel is a special horse. She beat Mine That Bird by a length and Macho Again by a head. If they are "lousy" horses, it's hard to argue that she's "special."

Two weeks rest , pressed every step of way, new trainer, a race that she was never meant to run in, yet she overcame all the issues.. Not to mention its May and SHE is 3

CSC 10-04-2009 12:15 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by freddymo
Neither are so special its a lousy crop. Mine that Bird won the friggin Derby. Summer Bird appears ok in what looks like another suspect group. I think both the other gals would give them heck not to mention Rachel.

I admire taking a stance but you are really opening yourself up for the grief you will receive when SB meets RA next yr, that is only if JJ can map out a campaign that will not avoid SB next yr. That may be more of a challenge than beating RA in itself.

freddymo 10-04-2009 12:26 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Cannon Shell
She is a three year old filly so she gets and deserves a pass. Next year she wont and I almost guarantee that Jackson will duck and dive all year.

Meaning what she wont try poly?
Start her back in the Sabin at 8 against her own or the GP handicap.. Then find another spot till the Met Mile. Then the Phipps,Surburan,Go for Wand, Whitney, Woodward, JCGC, Classic.. Curlin Feb 1 2011.

freddymo 10-04-2009 12:27 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by CSC
I admire taking a stance but you are really opening yourself up for the grief you will receive when SB meets RA next yr, that is only if JJ can map out a campaign that will not avoid SB next yr. That may be more of a challenge than beating RA in itself.

I really really like Summer Bird..I figure she will be racing and he wont anyway.. Redardless of Dr J's joy..

Kasept 10-04-2009 12:30 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by freddymo
Two weeks rest , pressed every step of way, new trainer, a race that she was never meant to run in, yet she overcame all the issues.. Not to mention its May and SHE is 3

Freddy,

What's wrong with this crop exactly? Not including the sprinters like Zensational/Candyman, et al,


Rachel Alexandra (Last 5):

108-9f (KY Oaks)
108-9.5f (Preakness)
111-9f (Mother Goose)
116-9f (Haskell)
109-9f (Woodward)


Summer Bird (Last 4):

100-12f (Belmont)
106-9f (Haskell)
110-10f (Travers)
111-10f (JCGC)


Quality Road (Last 5):

113-8f (FOY)
111-9f (FL Derby)
110-6.5f (Amsterdam)
103-10f (Travers)
110-10f (JCGC)

freddymo 10-04-2009 12:33 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Kasept
Freddy,

What's wrong with this crop exactly? Not including the sprinters like Zensational/Candyman, et al,


Rachel Alexandra (Last 5):

108-9f (KY Oaks)
108-9.5f (Preakness)
111-9f (Mother Goose)
116-9f (Haskell)
109-9f (Woodward)


Summer Bird (Last 4):

100-12f (Belmont)
106-9f (Haskell)
110-10f (Travers)
111-10f (JCGC)


Quality Road (Last 5):

113-8f (FOY)
111-9f (FL Derby)
110-6.5f (Amsterdam)
103-10f (Travers)
110-10f (JCGC)


The gals are terrific..2 ok colts? You forgot Pioneer of the Poly

Kasept 10-04-2009 12:40 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by freddymo
The gals are terrific..2 ok colts? You forgot Pioneer of the Poly

It's always premature to judge the crop until they've all had a chance to mature. And you're obviously not counting the sprinters, and may be discounting those that still can come around off first half of the year injuries.. (Dunkirks of the world).. And what about the turf players male and female?

Having just these three two-turner/classic distance standouts, (4 with Careless Jewel), is an OK starting point for a crop.

Indian Charlie 10-04-2009 01:03 PM

I believe this crop to be pretty good, though way too fragile. A lot of the better horses have been sidelined.

At one point, I came up with fifteen colts from this crop that had been sent to the sideline with injury.

Off the top of my head, in no particular order:

1. Friesan Fire
2. POTN
3. Charitable Man
4. Midshipman
5. Square Eddie
6. Dunkirk
7. Vineyard Haven
8. Desert Party
9. Regal Ransom
10. The Pampelmousse (sp?)
11. Street Hero
12. Quality Road
13. Old Fashioned

There were others, but like I said, those are just off the top of my head.

Kasept 10-04-2009 01:09 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Indian Charlie
I believe this crop to be pretty good, though way too fragile. A lot of the better horses have been sidelined.

At one point, I came up with fifteen colts from this crop that had been sent to the sideline with injury.

Off the top of my head, in no particular order:

1. Friesan Fire
2. POTN
3. Charitable Man
4. Midshipman
5. Square Eddie
6. Dunkirk
7. Vineyard Haven
8. Desert Party
9. Regal Ransom
10. The Pampelmousse (sp?)
11. Street Hero
12. Quality Road
13. Old Fashioned

There were others, but like I said, those are just off the top of my head.

And we forgot.....













I Want Revenge!

Kasept 10-04-2009 01:10 PM

Here's the Best Beyer list for 3 year olds (M/F) this year...

Blue = <1m

Rachel Alexandra (f) MTH 02 Aug 1 1/8M 116
This Ones for Phil GP 24 Jan 6F 115
I Want Revenge AQU 07 Mar 1 1/16M 113
Notonthesamepage GP 03 Jan 6F 113
Quality Road GP 28 Feb 1M 113
Warrior's Reward CD 01 May 7F 113
Munnings BEL 05 Jul 7F 111

Quality Road GP 28 Mar 1 1/8M 111
Rachel Alexandra (f) BEL 27 Jun 1 1/8M 111
Summer Bird BEL 03 Oct 1 1/4M 111
Cash Refund CD 25 Apr 6F 110
Munnings BEL 06 Jun 7F 110

Quality Road BEL 03 Oct 1 1/4M 110
Quality Road SAR 03 Aug 6 1/2F 110
Summer Bird SAR 29 Aug 1 1/4M 110
Zensational DMR 08 Aug 6F 110
Just Ben BEL 06 Jun 7F 109
Light Green (f) BEL 15 May 6F 109

Rachel Alexandra (f) SAR 05 Sep 1 1/8M 109
You Luckie Mann GP 24 Jan 6F 109
Big Drama GP 28 Mar 7F 108
Dunkirk GP 28 Mar 1 1/8M 108
Hollywood Hit WO 30 Sep 6F 108
Munnings CD 01 May 7F 108

Rachel Alexandra (f) CD 01 May 1 1/8M 108

Indian Charlie 10-04-2009 01:15 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Kasept
And we forgot.....

I Want Revenge!

OMG, I can't believe I forgot that one.

There are just so many in this crop.

CSC 10-04-2009 05:54 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by freddymo
Meaning what she wont try poly?
Start her back in the Sabin at 8 against her own or the GP handicap.. Then find another spot till the Met Mile. Then the Phipps,Surburan,Go for Wand, Whitney, Woodward, JCGC, Classic.. Curlin Feb 1 2011.

But she's won on poly already, so that sort of debunks that theory, someone should bring that up with Jess if he plans on using that same reason next year.

NTamm1215 10-04-2009 05:57 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by CSC
But she's won on poly already, so that sort of debunks that theory, someone should bring that up with Jess if he plans on using that same reason next year.

What Polytrack race will even be worth thinking about for her next year with the exception of the $10 million Dubai World Cup?

NT

CSC 10-04-2009 05:59 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Kasept
Here's the Best Beyer list for 3 year olds (M/F) this year...

Blue = <1m

Rachel Alexandra (f) MTH 02 Aug 1 1/8M 116
This Ones for Phil GP 24 Jan 6F 115
I Want Revenge AQU 07 Mar 1 1/16M 113
Notonthesamepage GP 03 Jan 6F 113
Quality Road GP 28 Feb 1M 113
Warrior's Reward CD 01 May 7F 113
Munnings BEL 05 Jul 7F 111

Quality Road GP 28 Mar 1 1/8M 111
Rachel Alexandra (f) BEL 27 Jun 1 1/8M 111
Summer Bird BEL 03 Oct 1 1/4M 111
Cash Refund CD 25 Apr 6F 110
Munnings BEL 06 Jun 7F 110

Quality Road BEL 03 Oct 1 1/4M 110
Quality Road SAR 03 Aug 6 1/2F 110
Summer Bird SAR 29 Aug 1 1/4M 110
Zensational DMR 08 Aug 6F 110
Just Ben BEL 06 Jun 7F 109
Light Green (f) BEL 15 May 6F 109

Rachel Alexandra (f) SAR 05 Sep 1 1/8M 109
You Luckie Mann GP 24 Jan 6F 109
Big Drama GP 28 Mar 7F 108
Dunkirk GP 28 Mar 1 1/8M 108
Hollywood Hit WO 30 Sep 6F 108
Munnings CD 01 May 7F 108

Rachel Alexandra (f) CD 01 May 1 1/8M 108

Let's not forget the best 3 yr old colt not named Summer Bird, The Pamplemousse. Watch out for him next year!

CSC 10-04-2009 06:02 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by NTamm1215
What Polytrack race will even be worth thinking about for her next year with the exception of the $10 million Dubai World Cup?

NT

The Pacific Classic for one. The Big Cap?

NTamm1215 10-04-2009 06:03 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by CSC
The Pacific Classic for one? The Big Cap?

Ok, sure, I bet those are definitely on his agenda for next year.

NT

CSC 10-04-2009 06:09 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by NTamm1215
Ok, sure, I bet those are definitely on his agenda for next year.

NT

I think we can look forward to a challenging 4 - 5 race campaign including the likes of the Donn, The Foster, The Woodward and the BC Classic. You can bet the races he picks for her will be on tracks tailored to her strengths.

freddymo 10-04-2009 06:48 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by CSC
I think we can look forward to a challenging 4 - 5 race campaign including the likes of the Donn, The Foster, The Woodward and the BC Classic. You can bet the races he picks for her will be on tracks tailored to her strengths.

If she goes in the Donn and is still around for the Woodward and Classic it would be hardly a soft campaign

cmorioles 10-04-2009 07:16 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by CSC
I think we can look forward to a challenging 4 - 5 race campaign including the likes of the Donn, The Foster, The Woodward and the BC Classic. You can bet the races he picks for her will be on tracks tailored to her strengths.

That is some pretty funny stuff there. Good job.

What person doesn't try to pick spots for their horse where they have the best chance to run well?

Cannon Shell 10-04-2009 07:29 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by cmorioles
That is some pretty funny stuff there. Good job.

What person doesn't try to pick spots for their horse where they have the best chance to run well?

Maybe a guy who wants to make some sort of history? Being that she is a filly there are a whole lot more options for her to avoid losing. Personally I think he will just try to keep her undefeated all year which is fine but if he doesn't take a few chances, especially going 1 1/4 then her 4 yo season will be a disappointment. I'm guessing a tune up at FG, the filly race on Derby undercard, S Foster, Whitney, Beldame, Classic.

CSC 10-04-2009 07:32 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by cmorioles
That is some pretty funny stuff there. Good job.

What person doesn't try to pick spots for their horse where they have the best chance to run well?

You mean the Frankel micromanagement style or the Mike Dickinson OCD method?

Yeah that was a joke...:)

NTamm1215 10-04-2009 07:32 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Cannon Shell
Personally I think he will just try to keep her undefeated all year which is fine but if he doesn't take a few chances, especially going 1 1/4 then her 4 yo season will be a disappointment

Or you mean she'll just be Zenyatta.

NT

Cannon Shell 10-04-2009 07:40 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by NTamm1215
Or you mean she'll just be Zenyatta.

NT

Conventional dirt version. I love when people say 'conventional' dirt. It just sounds funny

freddymo 10-04-2009 07:44 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Cannon Shell
Maybe a guy who wants to make some sort of history? Being that she is a filly there are a whole lot more options for her to avoid losing. Personally I think he will just try to keep her undefeated all year which is fine but if he doesn't take a few chances, especially going 1 1/4 then her 4 yo season will be a disappointment. I'm guessing a tune up at FG, the filly race on Derby undercard, S Foster, Whitney, Beldame, Classic.

8 weeks off till the Whitney?

CSC 10-04-2009 08:29 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Cannon Shell
Maybe a guy who wants to make some sort of history? Being that she is a filly there are a whole lot more options for her to avoid losing. Personally I think he will just try to keep her undefeated all year which is fine but if he doesn't take a few chances, especially going 1 1/4 then her 4 yo season will be a disappointment. I'm guessing a tune up at FG, the filly race on Derby undercard, S Foster, Whitney, Beldame, Classic.

He wants to make history only if it's on his terms, what kind of courage or challenge is that really?

brianwspencer 10-04-2009 08:35 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by CSC
He wants to make history only if it's on his terms, what kind of courage or challenge is that really?

As opposed to on your terms.

I see the conflict now.

CSC 10-04-2009 08:39 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by brianwspencer
As opposed to on your terms.

I see the conflict now.

Hey Brian, check out the vid I posted the link to in the eso section here. Pay attention to the last part. That's exactly what I would say to JJ if I had a chance to.

brianwspencer 10-04-2009 08:44 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by CSC
Hey Brian, check out the vid I posted the link to in the eso section here. Pay attention to the last part. That's exactly what I would say to JJ if I had a chance to.

3 minutes is too long, can you just sum it up for me?

freddymo 10-04-2009 08:45 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by brianwspencer
As opposed to on your terms.

I see the conflict now.

Hi I bought this filly for X million and now I should race her where she is less likely to succeed because if she was able to succeed it would be more impressive then if she succeeds on a G1 level against males at several distances and tracks.. Makes perfect sense to me

Cannon Shell 10-04-2009 09:10 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by freddymo
8 weeks off till the Whitney?

We need to keep her fresh. or someone will create some kind of a race for her.


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