Rachel vs. Zenyatta: Which run the better race?
 

Rachel- 111 Beyer while carrying equal weight.(121 lbs) beating 2 3yo fillies.

Zenyatta-104 Beyer whille carrying 129 lbs. and conceding up to 16 lbs to
her rivals. On a surface that may or may not be her favorite.

I just hope the meet in the Personal Ensign at Saratoga or better yet the Woodward.

It wont be Saratoga, Belmont would be likely.

Why should RA even show though no matter where its run, she has everything to lose (HOY) and nothing to gain?

If stepping out of your own division to win against MTB and Musket Man is impressive isnt it just a better idea to run in the Breeders Cup Classic, whats the list of fillies or mares who have won that race the past 25 years?

Why shouldn't she show up? Will a loss damage her stud career? Remember she is now owned and campaigned by Mr. Sportsman himself! Not to mention that I could sell my clubhouse seats for scalpers prices if they were to match up at the Spa.

What are you a dissenting nihilist?

This is a BEYER fueled forum. Whichever horse got the highest BEYER ran FASTER and thus BETTER. I'd say, from the NUMBERS, Zenyatta is just not FAST ENOUGH. :rolleyes:

Zenyatta by the beyers is actually a pretty slow horse in relation to her record.

show up and lose and would lose horse of the year

versus dont show up and its a lock to win horse of the year. It means something to JJ, he stated that repeatedly with Curlin.

thats funny, you're good. apples and oranges. one beat two horses the other beat the "usuals" . the only way to know is a race. its chancy for RA. zenyatta has age, experience and stamina but the way belmont is playing, speed is king right now. plus, theres got to be more horses. its a joke and not even serious when a grade 1 gets 3. its still free money to finish behind her. they could not get at least 4?

You think if Rachel Alexandra doesn't beat Zenyatta or win a Breeders' Cup race she's a lock to win HOTY?

She is going to need to beat Zenyatta if she's not gonna show up in the BC in order to win HOTY. Especially if Zenyatta faces males and Moss is obviously willing to do whatever's necessary to win HOTY.

NT

RA is america's darling, she is a media buzz, deservingly so, and she is a lock as long as she keeps beating up the 3 year olds and avoids losing to Zenyatta. The only way I see it becoming a problem is if Zenyatta wins against males, and better males then MTB.

its laughable that Moss says he'll do everything necessary for the HOTY... I mean look what she's done during her career already! Other than going to Oaklawn she's never been out of Cali and beat up on horses that are equal calibar to the one's Rachel is beating by 20.. (aka dogs).

I think the only chance Zenyatta is HOY (imo) is if she beats the boys (which she wont run against) in the BC Classic... or beats the boys in a different race AND beats Rachel.

Cause at this point I dont see how any 3yo colt could beat Rachel in the Haskell or Travers... she's just so much faster than anything in America right now. If Rachel wins the Travers or Haskell she could not race the rest of the year... or lose twice & still get HOY.

The smart move would be if Jackson came out today and said Rachel will run in the Haskell, Travers, and the Beldame if all goes well. That would put all the pressure on the Moss's to ship out for the Beldame. If they chose not to and Zenyatta won the BC Classic then Rachel could still win HOY. The longer Jackson waits to commit to a race that Zenyatta could ship out for the more sympathy there will be for the connections opting to stay in California. If they know right now the Beldame is the spot they could meet and they don't show up they will lost a lot of voters for HOY even if Zenyatta wins the Classic.

I know as race fans we can't seem to help these types of comparisons but I wish we could just appreciate how great they both are.

To say the 2 horses that ran against Rachel Saturday are equal caliber to Ginger Punch, Cocoa Beach, Hystericalady is quite a ways out there. Rachel's the fastest 3 yr old out there, but let's keep it in perspective. She beat Mine That Bird and Musket Man by a length. At this point to say either of those two is much more than a nice horse would be a stretch. Rachel's had a much better year than Zenyatta to this point. That's about all I'll say.

that would be a good idea.

I also just dont think Zenyatta is fast enough or good enough to win the classic.. After last year's success the Euro's are going to send some real race horses over here for the 2nd year the dirt classic is going to be run on a turf equivalent. Zenyatta would be lucky to hit the board.

Her only chance is to beat Rachel in a race on dirt and beat the boys in the Goodwood or something.

Moss didn't say specifically that he'd do anything but he did make a comment about how they need to try different things. I really have a feeling that Shirreffs has been calling the shots and Moss has just gone along for the ride. Shirreffs still sounds uneasy about going to NY because of the detention barn.

NT

:rolleyes:

she put away all the speed in the Preakness and still beat the closers in a race that set up perfect for MTB and Musket Man. on a track that you can clearly see, especially now after she just rolled over belmont, that she didnt handle Pimlico the same as Belmont and Churchill. After her race Saturday it became obvious.

Ginger Punch was okay.. nothing too special... After watching her few wins at Saratoga is snail like fasion she was nothing more than okay... prolly no better than Musket Man/MTB.

This is the typical figure perspective. She's not fast enough? Based on what? And why are the Euro's faster? Do you really think, given her performance over 11 races, that she wouldn't have been competitive in last year's Classic? She's ****in collapsed ELEVEN races. That's 11 races where she came from DEAD LAST (2nd last in OP). These are races that had multiple moves, middle moves, didn't have middle moves, and just about any other combo you might see. You really think that she wouldn't have rolled over a field in a race that collapsed due to multiple moves like last year's Classic?
Do you have any idea how unprecedented what this horse has done is? Even Forego lost on days when the setup went against him. This horse dictates setups --- it's her way all the time.

I think she ran AWESOME in last years distaff... prolly her 2nd best race behind her real dirt win. With saying that I think she would have ran 2nd in last years classic... which would have still been an incredible achievement.

She's a spectacular filly who I'd like to see run against some actual competition. The only way she does that is running against boys or Rachel.

I'd bet against her with two fists in the Classic & against Rachel... but I hope she actually does it and proves me wrong because her career has been BORING save a couple races.

Winning from dead last is a great feat.. but come on.. do it against some other fast horses PLEASE!

Camp Zenyatta had a plan for HOY--make a token trip out-of-state again (which, no fault of theirs, had to be scratched), beat up on a bunch of tin cans in-state thereafter, and take the BC Distaff (as I still call it) on home field. If they could keep her together, it would have worked, unless some 3YO freaked.

And a 3YO has freaked. Worse, it is a filly that has now offered up three historical performances in a row, in big showcase races. And she is threatening to do more. If she were to do the Haskell or Travers, or--heaven help her-- both, it would be a ridiculous accomplishment. The sentiment for her would be overwhelming for HOY, and deservedly so. Zenyatta would have to come out and face her, BC be damned, to keep her HOY shot alive. The writers are going to reward the daring-do of RA if she pulls off a couple of more historical performances. People like that stuff. More boring stakes races on the California poly circuit you can get any weekend.

Zenyatta's only other alternative would be to start stepping out herself--but they've already said no to the Pacific Classic, opting for the Clement Hirsch. Here's a bulletin: nobody outside of California really cares about the Clement Hirsch--it is just more of the same, in year when a filly is doing things that definitely are NOT the same. Maybe going to the Goodwood might work. Certainly the BC Classic would do the trick. But unless RA falters, then Zenyatta & Co. MUST call an audible of some kind, or risk having an undefeated twice champion who couldn't make HOY.

Interesting number even after the new synth Beyers were instituted, where the top beyers are higher and the lower one's are adjusted more modestly. One must conclude The Beyer for Z was not too impressive if the number is correct otherwise there would be an even greater gap prior to the new synth beyers.

'FAST' is certainly not the result of anything FIGURES might tell you. That the crew had to make AD HOC adjustments to its POLY methodology should make this apparent. That all the FAST GP horses of this past winter haven't exactly been FAST since might be another indication.

But let me get this FAST thing straight. Mine that Bird WASN'T FAST, then he was FAST. So, he must be one of the FAST horses that RA has beaten; as are those plugs she rolled over this weekend with that perfect setup?

I agree with you. I dont really care about figures, I dont bet enough to really care.. I have my own method of madness that only seems to work at Saratoga... so I only bet Saratoga (where I make a lil money) & big race days (where I lose money).

Thats the point though... there really are no fast horses especially if she keeps running against fillies and mares on the poly. Rachel's fast... there are some boys out there that arent fast compared to fast horses in other years, but are MUCH faster than the horses big Z's been beating.

I dont blame the owners for staying in their back yard and winning purse after purse without having to put out much effort. i DO think they were chickens for scratching her on Oaks day... because of RAIN!!?!? But if they want to win a HOY, which is what the man is saying... they have to grow a pair and run against something other than the junk they've been beating for a couple years now. Since they've never acted like this before, I guess I have to see it to believe it.

In theory, Rachel Alexandra is supposed to move way up and improve dramatically over her next few races after making a barn change from Hal Wiggins to Steve Asmussen.

It's common sense as far as stats go ... but it's also hard to imagine she could improve that much more when you look at her 3yo form for Hal and that Oaks win in her final start.

I actually think RA was atleast as refreshing as any horse I ever remember in all my time following racing when she was with Wiggins .. and I say that because of two trends that have dominated racing recently.

#1.) The quality horses in almost every division are very low rated performance wise from a historical standpoint.

#2.) The trainer factor has become as unbearably annoying to witness as it's been profitable to follow.


The thing that was so great about RA ... is that she kept running these races that were historically outstanding performances for early season 3yo fillies going long ... and was doing it not for a trainer with too good to be true numbers ... but rather, doing it for a trainer who had comically poor numbers .. bad enough numbers to suggest he was utterly incompetent if you're foolish enough to believe that some of the other guys are taking no advantages.

When RA was with Wiggins ... she was bar none the easiest horse to root for I ever remember .. at least in my mind. I still think she's very easy to root for because you know how real she is.

John Sheriffs is one of my favorite trainers of all-time ... but he has some magic to him. I've never seen a guy better at cranking them up. He had the freakiest stats of all-time with first time starters when he trained for 505 .. and now he's like Frankel-esque post 505.

Zenyatta isn't an easy horse for me to root for at all. A one dimension closer with a perfect style for synthetic .. and a single dirt race that I feel was a little overrated.

RA is way easier to root for of the two.

As for who ran the better race on Saturday ... if Zenyatta was in that race at Belmont Park she still would have been beat by RA even though there were two speeds in there. If RA was at HP against Zenyatta Saturday ... I believe RA would have run terrible on that synthetic because virtually every Asmussen horse going further than 4.5 furlongs runs below their form on it - many way below their form.

now to address this point. Mine That Bird got much faster when he changed his running style. He's not super fast but he is capable of running fast especially the last 3/8ths of a race.

The plugs she beat in the Oaks and Mother Goose are SLOW horses. BUT SHE'S WON BY FREAKING 20 LENGHTS!!!!!!!! In UNBELIEVABLY fast times! Fat man, repeat after me.. ONE MINUTE AND FORTY SIX SECONDS AND ONE/FIFTH. that is fast my friend :)

Theres a matchup that may happen on Sunday at Belmont which I am looking forward to even more...Driven by Success and Fabulous Strike meet again in the Tom Fool. Last time they met it was the Carter and both ran exceptionally well but got understandingly tired enough to both lose (Kodiak Kowboy won).

I know it wont get the ink of a hypothetical Rachel vs Zenyatta, but these are 2 very talented horses and I cant wait to see them go at it.

http://www.timesunion.com/AspStories...ategory=SPORTS

To make the race more alluring for Zenyatta owner Jerry Moss, the New York Racing Association might change their purse structure and increase the purse for the Go for Wand and/or Personal Ensign.

"NYRA generally does not sweeten pots or provide incentives but this could be a situation that might warrant that consideration," NYRA president and CEO Charlie Hayward said in an e-mail. "I know (Zenyatta's owner) Mr. (Jerry) Moss opened the door to coming East and we will spend this week finding out what that means."

So what? She beat nothing by open lengths and ran fast doing so. On the other hand, Z has collapsed ELEVEN races in a row, with the same running style. Anyone not fixated on 'FAST' would, at some point, conclude, that maybe she's not SLOW. If she were coming in the lane of the Preakness, rather than the FAST Mine that Bird, doubtful that the RA hangs on.

What a conundrum.

I couldnt agree more. Theres just something lacking in races run on polytrack. Pretty much all her races look the same. Zenyatta is freaking awesome but its a pity she couldnt be doing this on the east coast on dirt. Lets face it, we all know who the more memorable horse will be 5 years from now...unless of course they decide to run that horse on dirt.

Hard to be fast on anyone's final time figures when you get drowned by the great Kelly Leak.

You'll be happy to know ... he was FAST on pace figs though! Do you hate parital race figs as much as final time figs?

Again, I don't know if anyone knows the answer to this but has Zenyatta's career poly numbers have been ammended and upgraded since Beyer has changed the formula for assigning synthetic numbers.

I said she was the fastest 3 yr old out there. I am not really buying the she didn't like Pimlico story. I think the margin was one length because she faced a couple ok horses...not complete garbage. If she ran against Stone Legacy and Malibu Prayer in the Preakness, she wins that race by 20. Her Beyers were 108, 108, 111 those last 3 races. She handled two of those tracks but not the third one?? Makes no sense. You said Ginger Punch was no better than Flashing and Malibu Prayer and Stone Legacy...not Musket Man.

sooner or later this was going to happen...

we have a situation, where a match race needs to be created for pay-per-view

they've earned that big payday and the public wants it, it is just up to the owners to get on the same page and sign on with a solid promoter. The money is on the table.

Kind of hard to gauge his ability when that is the only route race he's had on dirt.

RA was compromised by trip and fractions in the Preakness ... of course Zenyatta probably gets to her and goes by her late that day.

Still, we are taking about a 3yo filly in middle may vs. a 5yo that is easily the best older horse in the land on synthetic ... and easily the best older mare in the land on dirt too .. though more because the others kind of suck than anything else.

Dude, go back to one of the early Beyer books--somewhere among them there is a chapter entitled something like "How was the figured earned". Reread it, then check out the Preakness again. Maybe you will learn something.

The immortal Gabby's Golden Gal ran a faster final time the same day going a route in the Sunland Oaks ... albeit with a candy trip and all.

I doubt KL is that much on dirt.

DUDE

I'm every bit as good a trip handicapper as BEYER. That much you can bank on.
There's NOTHING in any of BEYER's books that will enlighten my perspective of the Preakness. But, thanks for suggesting how I can take my game down a few notches.

Not only that, it was plain that she did not like that track. I am not talking about Calvin's statements after the race. While the race was running I turned to my friend and said "Look at her--she's running choppy, she doesn't like this track." I thought it was clear then and there. So while some other people discounted his statement, I thought it fairly obvious.

If you win the Preakness over a track that is not your best, contesting a wicked pace, you are some freaking horse--or filly.

Well, we agree--you are beyond enlightenment.

Pass the bratwurst.