Win Willy
 

Raise your hand if you saw that one coming. I guess seeing Larry only worked his horse once in a month I can see him losing, but WW wouldn't have been my first pick...of course it makes a little sense looking back now.

Old Fashioned was less than two lengths off the 22 3/5 quarter and a 46-flat half set by Silver City, who is a very talented sprinter. OF ran quite hard from start to finish and still finished eight lengths clear of everybody else. While it's nowhere near a Derby performance, OF wasn't a slouch by any stretch today. I'm thinking King's Bishop could up his wheelhouse (and Silver City's) by the time the Derby Trail dust settles.

i had placed a conditional wager on him to win early in the day.
with losses mounting i canceled that wager in order to place some more losing bets. then he wins to add insult to injury.
it was not a fun day.

I thought Ramon's move was a bit premature especially considering the pace.

I had win bets on 5 others in there trying to beat Old Fashioned, but not WW! Right idea, just one bomb short!:mad: I couldn't have found that freakin horse had I been in the saddle!

Win Willy's dam was a solid D Wayne Lukas sprinter who once ran 2nd to Xtra Heat in a stake.

Nice win today coming from 16 lengths back after the opening quarter - and posted that nice win in good time.

However, there is some sadness to this story.

If anyone's not familar with his trainer ... he's 142-for-437 (32.5% wins) at Canterbury Park over the last two years. By comparison - the mystical Jamie Ness is just 97-for-389 (24.9% wins) at Canterbury Park over the last two years.

Didn't see it coming, but it was pretty exciting to see him make up soooo much ground.

I'm sorry Old Fashioned, though he did run well today, was exposed this early. He was never getting 1 1/4 in this year's likely speed laden Derby. Unfortunately, everyone knows this now.

At least two pretenders, Freisan Fire and Pioneer of Nothing, continue to fool people.

I think Pioneer of the Nile is a joke but I don't know how Friesan Fire is a pretender. Maybe he's Pyro II? At least he can run a fast race.

I know he got a perfect trip pace-wise and seems to have found a way to avoid any adversity at every turn, but I thought he ran well today.

Not as well as Rachel Alexandra though.

NT

i'm pretty sure that Pioneer of Nothing won't be able to get past the SA derby without being fully exposed.

I've liked FF awhile now and think he's been babied along this year so far.

He seems to me to be a pretty nice 3yo at this point, and I think he's just going to keep getting better for the time being.

That being said, who is it you like? I haven't seen you say anything positive about any of these three year olds yet.

Freisan Fire's speed, if nothing else, will be his undoing down the road. It's entirely possible that one day he may not get an absolutely perfect trip.

He's OK, though, and better than I have given him credit for being.

I love stuff like this.

He's interesting in that yeah, he's got good speed, but he's always got a hold of down the backside. He looks like a very rateable push buttoned horse. If they go fast early on in his upcoming races, I see no reason why he won't be able to sit again, though just a bit further back.

In his two previous races he ran the same way as today. Jock has a hold of him as he sits right near the pace. It was a little peculiar that he would be sitting full of run and then run evenly or not very impressively in the stretch, until today.

My theory being he wasn't that fit and was being raced into shape.

Who really knows what he's been beating, but I think he's got a perfect racing style and will be hard to beat in Ky.

Does anyone know if he's going to run another prep race before the derby?

I'm glad you do!

However, it wasn't meant as a criticism in any way. I am really just curious as to who you like in this crop.

Believe me, I'm just as critical as you are when it comes to horse quality.

Even though he's run much better with each of his four races this year - He's still slower than Old Fashioned - and Old Fashioned had just one work for this race today and hasn't had the Cowboy hat guy tighten the screws yet.

Hard Spun went into the Derby off of a five week layoff - since FF is so heavily raced this year - I think he might go into the race off of a six week layoff. Probably will run in the Blue Grass if he chooses one final prep.

Yeah, I agree about OF. That is about not having the screws tightened yet. I expect him to run a much better race in the Arkansas Derby.

No way he wins the Kentucky Derby though.

I don't like him in the Derby either - but he's much less absurd than Fresian Fire!

Patena?

I liked what I saw today. I had "all" in the pick 4 because the previous races ended up going my way so obviously I was against him but he has improved in every race, as the races get longer and experience. He's a hell of a lot better than I've given him credit for, I had discounted the NY 2YO races so much thanks to the poor performances of Break Water Edison, Hello Broadway, and Vineyard Haven, and figured his FG races were perfect-trip mirages against much lesser (kind of like Pyro last year). I think we have forgotten with so many recent Derby winners being so lightly raced (and undefeated, for that matter) that the old school way was to have a horse built for distance that improves with every start. His stablemate probably has more talent but has less of a chance to get the distance due to pedigree and running style, which seems pretty one-dimensional, he dragged the jock to the lead today into a pretty ridiculous pace. FF at least has shown he can sit off a few lengths and put in a run when called on.

The best horse of this generation isn't even nominated for the Triple Crown yet (of course he probably will be soon). Other than him, FF might be the 2nd most likely winner of the Derby at this point.

I am sure you have see how Ness's horse seemingly almost stop at the quarter pole now, it is amazing what happens when you can't rely on steriods and other insaneness and you actually have to train a little

Ah, Scav ...

I hate breaking the news to you .... but Ness is 43-for-110 (39% wins) and $2.58 ROI with all dirt horses in 2009.

2009? Are you sure? Maybe my perception was way off, but I have seen some of his horses at Tampa run absolutely horrible.

He's 47-for-146 (32.2% wins) and a $2.18 ROI with all starters at Tampa this meet.

He was 2-for-48 last October - and struggled for a short time before coming to Tampa.

This is why I say things like this for you to confirm or deny. :)

Thank you for not letting me sound like an idiot when I go on a rampage at the OTB

Yea, I agree with you about O.F. He is no slouch. Sort of reminds me of Smarty Jones with an even more impatient rider, and a little less stamina. Look, there simply seemed to be very little grey matter being used by his connections in this race. They made no effort whatsoever to rate off a horse going too fast. Compared to the horses in 1st n' 3rd on the backstretch, where did O.F. finish? Look where the winner is on the backstretch. They went too fast. 50-1 HORSES WIN TRAINWRECKS, and that's what this race was. He's lost one time, and it was (to me) due to overconfidence. They need to get him to relax more and/or try another rider that's more willing to save something for the 2nd half of the race. Has to also recover well from this race. I don't think he can be thrown out, but they don't seem to have a plan to get 10f. A track bias would appear to be mandatory.

I would't throw Old Fashioned out just yet. He was obviously not cranked up for this with a light workload in the last month, and as discussed, those fractions he chased will take the starch out of most 3yo. Afleet Alex ran a poor Rebel (rumored sick) before Richey really got him dialed in for the remainder of the spring.

I am missing something with the Old Fashioned/Afleet Alex analogy.

I think an Old Fashioned/Rockport Harbor analogy would be more fitting.

Too late.

Was in rare form this weekend, caught a hot streak and was 5 for 5 at Santa Anita and alive to 6700 and 90k. I thought Satan's Twin was going to have a heart attack he was screaming so loud for the 90k horse to not hang :)

everyone is blaming the rider but i didn't like the way old fashioned ran. to me it appeared as if he was pulling and chasing the lead horse. OF was working hard from the get go. this does not bode well as the distances get longer. if this horse does not develop some rateability his chances are nil.

imperial council takes down old fashinon in may

if OF runs like he did saturday, he'll be lucky to be in the super.

Both won the Southwest and lost the Rebel. What's so hard to understand about that? Not making any predictions about the future, just saying it's too early to toss a talented horse that clearly wasn't pointed to that spot.

Let's see, Afleet Alex was an accomplished 2YO, who won a Grade 1, and placed in two others including the BC ( where he was tons the best ), whereas Old Fashioned was a hype machine that won one race of any meaning ( against a field that is now being shown to have been claimer riddled ). Afleet Alex bombed in the Rebel, so badly that it wasn't hard to believe the lung infection story after the race, whereas hype machine Old Fashioned lost probably because he's both too keen and distance challenged. Now, don't get me wrong, Old Fashioned is a nice horse, but these two situations are only comparable in that the same race is involved. Please don't compare Old Fashioned to Afleet Alex.

Sorry, but I will beg to differ on whether or not Old Fashioned was being pointed for the Rebel.

Assuming Silver City, after fading very badly in this weekend's race, does not run back in the Arkansas Derby, the race dynamics will change significantly - and to the benefit of Old Fashioned.

Everyone is going crazy about Friesan Fire and I Want Revenge, but neither has yet to prove his mettle in a race with a solid pace. Their respective races in the Louisiana Derby and Gotham were virtually identical; each stalked a slow pace and drew off when the other "speed" could not go on with it, and the pace worked to the detriment of the closers.

That's exactly what I said at the beginning in saying Afleet Alex ran his worst race in the Rebel and now Old Fashioned has run his worst to date. Afleet Alex certainly beat better fields at 2, but Old Fashioned was never challenged and ran comparable figures. To say he's "distance challenged" at this point is pure speculation. He clearly hasn't been pushed at all with one work in a month, and ran second by 8 on class alone after chasing a fast pace.

I beg to differ. I think he ran second by eight lengths because the rest of the field sucked....badly. Did you take a good look at their respective pps?

Old Fashioned is a nice horse. In some years he might even be a Derby contender. Not this year.

a top derby contender should be able to run on a fast pace for 1 1/16 miles with a good inside post at Oaklawn with no other top derby competitors in the race and not get mowed down late.

if he can't handle that challenge, how in the world will he handle the derby?

I don't know, I can't toss the horse out yet, particularly with the underwhelming efforts of many others out there thus far.